Category: NAM Model

Aug 05

Turning More Unsettled…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

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Sun.

Mon.

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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby.  Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage).  As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.

Best Rain Chances Friday?  Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary.  It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.

Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine.  Perfect timing, heh?!

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″-1.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/turning-more-unsettled/

Jul 29

Tuesday Evening Video Update: Cooler Than Normal Pattern Continues…

Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday.  Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/29/tuesday-evening-video-update-cooler-than-normal-pattern-continues/

Jul 27

Sunday Morning Weather Rambles…

Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/27/sunday-morning-weather-rambles/

Jul 22

Early Wednesday Rumbles?

We’re not excited about prospects of needed rainfall or widespread thunderstorm activity Wednesday. That said, the latest HRRR forecast radar, valid 5am Wednesday, suggests a broken line of thunderstorms may…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/22/early-wednesday-rumbles/

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Jun 24

Showers, Thunderstorms Expand In Coverage Later Today.

We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours.  So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.

We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.

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The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.

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Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.

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As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening.  We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70.  Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area.  The upper energy will provide the needed lift.  Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.

The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.

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Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.

Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business?  Email us at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/

Jun 18

Two Rounds Of Storms Ahead.

Good evening friends!  I hope this finds you having a nice Wednesday.  Our video update this evening looks at a couple rounds of strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms ahead.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/18/two-rounds-of-storms-ahead/

Jun 17

Focusing On Wednesday Evening Severe Potential…

Good afternoon!  We wanted to cut a video discussing our thinking around timing and primary threats from any severe weather that gets going across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!

4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/17/focusing-on-wednesday-evening-severe-potential/

Jun 10

Tuesday Evening Video Update!

Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/10/tuesday-evening-video-update/

Jun 09

Soaking Rain Ahead Tuesday Into Wednesday.

We still think most of today is dry and while we’re off to a cloudy start, the latest scan of the visible satellite image would suggest some brightening of the sky is a good bet from time to time late morning into the afternoon.

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Enjoy whatever sunshine you see today, as clouds begin to lower and thicken this evening and widespread rain won’t be far behind.  The simulated radar shows rain and embedded thunder will be rather widespread Tuesday.

6am Tuesday future radar product

6am Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be a good bet between Tuesday and Wednesday and we feel the short-term, high resolution, NAM forecast model has a good handle on the distribution of precipitation.  There will be locally heavier totals.

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We’ll have your complete 7-day forecast updated and posted later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/09/soaking-rain-ahead-tuesday-into-wednesday/

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