Category: NAM Model

Aug 05

Turning More Unsettled…

Tue.

Wed.

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Fri.

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Mon.

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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby.  Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage).  As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.

Best Rain Chances Friday?  Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary.  It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.

Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine.  Perfect timing, heh?!

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″-1.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/turning-more-unsettled/

Jul 29

Tuesday Evening Video Update: Cooler Than Normal Pattern Continues…

Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday.  Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update-cooler-than-normal-pattern-continues/

Jul 27

Sunday Morning Weather Rambles…

Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…

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Jul 22

Early Wednesday Rumbles?

We’re not excited about prospects of needed rainfall or widespread thunderstorm activity Wednesday. That said, the latest HRRR forecast radar, valid 5am Wednesday, suggests a broken line of thunderstorms may…

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Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/