Category: Monthly Outlook

Feb 10

Spring; #Plant24 Outlook…

Updated 02.10.24 @ 7:20a

Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:

  • El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
  • Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
  • Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.

Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.

This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.

Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.

European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through May
JMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May

From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.

European seasonal temperature anomalies March through May
JMA temperature anomalies March through May

IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:

  • Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
  • Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.

Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/spring-plant24-outlook/

Nov 26

After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?

Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a

November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).

Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.

Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.

It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.

Nov. 23 – Nov. 30
Dec. 1 – Dec. 7
Dec. 7 – Dec. 14
Dec. 14 – Dec. 21
Dec. 21 – Dec. 28

Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.

Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…

At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/26/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/

Oct 25

The Expected November Transition…

Updated 10.25.22 @ 5:08p

(A friendly reminder that our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Friday morning).

When we look at our top 2 analog years (’75-’76 and ’00-’01), we note a couple of common themes in November: cooler than normal anomalies were favored across the West while the East was favored warmer than normal. Note the temperature scale differences at the key on the bottom of both images.

Another common theme in these Novembers? Cold started bleeding east mid and late month, which eventually set up cold, wintry Decembers and a fast start to winter across the Mid West, Great Lakes, and East.

The new European Weeklies hold the ridge east through the 1st half of November. Given the EPO, PNA, and MJO (not to mention analogs above), there’s no reason to disagree with this. In fact, early November will likely still include some 70° days, if not flirt with 75°+.

November: Week 1
November: Week 2

Notice what transpires as we rumble into late November and early December: A totally different look at 500mb as a trough begins to form in the exact same place the persistent ridge will reside to open the month. Winter enthusiasts have to also love the look of high latitude blocking.


Wholesale pattern “transitions” can be finicking and will require close attention as we get to mid month and closer to Thanksgiving. From this distance, there’s no reason not to think our longstanding idea of a mid month colder shift has merit. Then, it’ll be time to understand how the vastly different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) may impact the December and quick start to winter idea.

More on this and the winter as a whole Friday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/25/the-expected-november-transition/

Jan 28

Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through February…

Updated 01.28.22 @ 7:32a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/28/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-february/

Sep 30

October Outlook: Bonus Period Of Warmth…

Updated 09.30.21 @ 7:18a

Before we dig into our thoughts around what lies ahead during the 2nd month of meteorological fall, let’s take a look at what some of the longer range computer models show:

JMA- ‘Mean’ ridge parked over southeast Canada and into the northern Great Lakes with an associated warmer than normal pattern pegged from the northern Plains and points east- most notably along the northern tier. (Slightly warmer than normal here in the Ohio Valley).

European Weeklies- almost identical to the JMA above. A persistent ridge is shown anchored across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region. Well above normal warmth is painted across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes while slightly above normal temperatures take up residence from the Plains and points east.

CFSv2- While still showing the significant upper ridge in the same place as it’s JMA and Euro counterparts, the CFSv2 is more bullish on a western trough and associated cooler pattern for that part of the country. Like the other guidance above, the model paints the warm, to much warmer than normal, look from the Plains and points east.

The warm look being shown on the models above should come as no surprise. There’s a tendency for such during La Nina Octobers, along with that persistent upper ridge placement. That’s not to say there won’t be brief intrusions of cooler air at times, but these will likely be fewer than normal by October standards, and “brief” is the key word.

In the short-term, the 2 primary teleconnections we lean on this time of year (PNA and EPO) don’t suggest there’s any reason to go against the October Nina analogs. Perhaps in the longer range (towards late October and into November), there’s a better window to change the pattern up, but my hunch is the more profound pattern shift doesn’t hit and hold until the 2nd half of November and December.

The MJO in large part is expected to remain in the “null” phase through the bulk of the month, meaning we’ll lean heavier on the PNA and EPO.

With all of that said, we’ll follow suit with a warmer than normal October (bonus warmth) for most of the country, including here in the Ohio Valley. Precipitation is expected to be near average for October (3.22″ is the average for Indianapolis).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/30/october-outlook-bonus-period-of-warmth/

Jul 31

VIDEO: August Outlook; Cool Start To The Month A Hint Of What Lies Ahead?

Updated 07.31.21 @ 9:35a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/07/31/video-august-outlook-cool-start-to-the-month-a-hint-of-what-lies-ahead/

Jul 01

July 2021 Outlook…

Updated 07.01.21 @ 7:13p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/07/01/july-2021-outlook/

May 31

June 2021 Outlook…

Updated 05.31.21 @ 9a

With the exception of the far Southwest and Northeast, May 2021 has been a relatively cool month, overall:

More closely to home, May featured “haves and have nots” in the precipitation department. Officially, (as of 5/30), Indianapolis is running more than 2.6° below normal on the month and 1.03″ below normal in the precipitation department.

As we look to June, the first week, overall, should open with slightly below normal temperatures, but there are changes in the offing that will promote significant warming in the Week 2 time frame (June 7-14). Note how the trough providing the cooler air in the immediate term is replaced with the expanding ridge over the Great Lakes.

This should provide us a shot to touch the 90° mark during the aforementioned period at least on a couple of days. Regardless, we can expect rising humidity levels and a more summer-like feel. (I suppose that’s appropriate here on the first day of the unofficial start of summer).

Longer term, we need to keep close tabs on the MJO. Longer range data suggests the amplitude we’ve seen as of late will collapse.

A big drop negative in the PNA will promote the Week 2 heat that we mentioned above. Thereafter, it appears as if the PNA will want to rebound closer to neutral (heat shouldn’t hold).

As a whole, we believe the drought-stricken West will be the breeding ground for big time heat while things are much more transitional across the East (leading to near seasonal temperatures. As for precipitation, we’re expecting a wetter pattern to emerge for the Deep South, TN Valley, and into the eastern Ohio Valley in the month ahead. Meanwhile, the already dry ground across the West is likely to only worsen, unfortunately.

For perspective, averages for the month of June here in central Indiana include highs in the lower 80s (82.0° at IND), lows in the lower 60s (62.9° at IND), and nearly 5″ (4.95″ at IND) of rain.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/31/june-2021-outlook/

May 01

May 2021 Outlook: Same Theme For Some While The Pattern Changes For Others…

Updated 05.01.21 @ 4:14p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/01/may-2021-outlook-same-theme-for-some-while-the-pattern-changes-for-others/

Apr 30

VIDEO: Pleasant Open To The Weekend; Don’t Put Those Jackets Away…

Updated 04.30.21 @ 7:41a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/04/30/video-pleasant-open-to-the-weekend-dont-put-those-jackets-away/

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