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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-locally-heavy-rain-arrives-sunday-evening-longer-range-pattern-thoughts-into-mid-october/
Sep 19
VIDEO: Discussing Weekend Rain And Updated Weeks 2-4 Thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-discussing-weekend-rain-and-updated-weeks-2-4-thoughts/
Sep 18
VIDEO: Better Rain Chances Arrive Over The Weekend; Longer Range Rambles…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-better-rain-chances-arrive-over-the-weekend-longer-range-rambles/
Sep 17
MJO/ EPO Telling Of Where The Pattern Is Heading To Close September & Open October?
The short-term period will continue to be dominated by unseasonably warm and dry weather. While we’ll notice a drier air mass (lower humidity) in place the next couple of days, temperatures will remain much warmer than where we should be in mid to late September.
As we close out the month and head into early October, there’s opportunity for a cooler change and we can look to the MJO and EPO for these clues.
Let’s start with the EPO. The GEFS has been leading the way on the negative transition late September for some time now. The EPS is now trending more strongly negative as of the past couple of days. This argues for a cooler than normal period of weather as we put a bow on September and open October.
(The strongly positive EPO will promote more well above normal warmth in the short to medium term period).
The MJO is becoming more amplified and the result is that we can add another “tool to the belt” moving forward in determining the overall direction of the longer range pattern.
Phase 8 argues for widespread warmth, but as we transition from Phase 1 into Phase 2 (easy to see that’s where the MJO wants to head), cooler air swings into the East/ South.
That transition may also result in needed moisture. Note the wetter period that develops during the movement from Phase 1-2.
Speaking of moisture, Sunday appears to offer up the best chance of widespread, organized rain/ storms we’ve seen month-to-date. Models are keying in on the potential of 0.50″ to 1″ (fingers crossed) as a cold front moves into the region.
The CFSv2 is following the plan outlined above- transitioning towards a wetter and eventually cooler pattern Weeks 2-3.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mjo-epo-telling-of-where-the-pattern-is-heading-to-close-september-open-october/
Sep 09
A Teleconnection Tale…
Before we display the mean upper level pattern ahead over the next couple weeks, let’s look at some of the various teleconnections to gain some insight behind what’s driving the overall pattern.
EPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).
WPO- primarily positive to strongly positive (warm signal).
MJO- heading into Phase 6 with a look like it wants to rumble into Phase 7. This is a warm signal this time of year.
With the warm signals above, it should come as no surprise of the next couple weeks offering up a predominant eastern ridge.
Days 6-10
Days 10-14
While a couple of weak cold fronts may lead to somewhat cooler air briefly, the balance of the next couple of weeks looks to offer up much more in the way of summer-like heat and well above normal warmth. It should also be noted that the overall pattern looks like a dry one over the next 10-14 days, as well.
Don’t put away that swim suit just yet!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-teleconnection-tale/