Updated 01.18.21 @ 4:51p
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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-initial-thoughts-on-february-reviewing-the-more-active-weather-pattern-in-front-of-us/
Jan 14
VIDEO: Short And Long Range Update As We Head Into (At Times) A Snowy Weekend And Get Set To Traverse The 2nd Half Of Jan/ Open Feb…
Updated 01.14.21 @ 6:52p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-and-long-range-update-as-we-head-into-at-times-a-snowy-weekend-and-get-set-to-traverse-the-2nd-half-of-jan-open-feb/
Jan 07
Long Range Outlook: Pattern Drivers Over The Next Few Weeks…
We’ve opened the month of January on a very warm note, compared to normal. Through the first (6) days of the month, temperatures are running 6.3° above average.
Well above average temperatures have dominated the northern tier into the eastern 1/3 of the country to open the month.
Looking ahead, the basis of the forecast over the next 3-4 weeks will be built on favorable teleconnection phases (for cold) with the AO, NAO, and PNA, while the predominantly positive EPO keeps any sort of sustained/ significant cold hard to come by. This is a pattern that can turn quite active (and we think it will), but one that still doesn’t appear as if it’ll grow overly cold- compared to normal.
We continue to eye the MJO propagation. The latest European models keep things in the null phase, but the American products seemingly want to get things more amplified. For now we’re not biting, but if things did sneak into Phases 3-4 by late month, warmer times would follow.
Week 1
Week 2
Through the first couple of weeks, modeling is in about as good of agreement as you could expect. After a period of quiet weather (immediate term), the pattern should turn much more active next week and the week thereafter, locally. While I don’t think cold overwhelms the pattern as much as the GFS ensemble is showing, I would go with more of a blend between that and the warmer JMA/ European.
Snow should also begin to get laid down across more of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. This is a stout look from the latest European and GFS ensemble means over the next 2 weeks (our daily videos and short-term products will handle this):
Thereafter, the weekly products take the pattern in two different directions and confidence is much lower late month and to open February. If the MJO remains a non-factor, colder solutions should carry the day. On the other hand, if the MJO does, indeed, roll into Phase 3/4, warmer times should follow in the Weeks 3-4 period. Stay tuned.
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Jan 05
VIDEO: Pattern Evolution Into Mid-January…
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Dec 24
Long Range Update: Merry Christmas Eve From Our Home To Yours…
Right off the bat, the theme we want to drive home is that while active, the pattern ahead isn’t overly cold. Cold enough, at times, to create some wintry “fun and games?” Absolutely, but we’re not forecasting a widespread period of sustained cold over the next few weeks.
While the teleconnections favor durable cold from an AO/ NAO perspective…
…the EPO isn’t as favorable, and will likely present some warmer times in between the colder shots.
As it is, note how the blocking really matures from Week 1 to Week 2.
Undoubtedly this will force a stormy period into (at least) the first half of January. At times, initially, Great Lakes cutters are possible, but as we get closer to NYE and into the 1st week of January, itself, I think that’s the window that we really need to focus on for the potential of 1, if not 2, OHV winter storm threats.
The longer range, weekly models are trending in an interesting direction for the 1st full week of January, “marrying” the moisture with the cold, locally.
CFSv2
The JMA Weeklies are also intriguing from an upper air perspective (very similar to what the other ensemble data shows for the similar time frame).
While we’re not ready to unveil our January Outlook just yet (that will come next week), I think we’ll need to start keeping a closer eye on the MJO by the middle and latter part of the month. As things stand now, it appears we may sneak into Phase 2 to open the month (favors cold, locally) before potentially getting into a milder Phase 3 towards the end of the first week.
As things stand now, once the brief arctic intrusion gets out of here this weekend, temperatures will go into a “yo-yo” mode next week as (2) storm systems impact the area between Sunday and Wednesday. The date to keep a closer eye on for potential wintry impacts is more towards Jan. 2-4 time frame as the blocking gets into better position/ matures.
We’ll be back with a video update later today. Until then, Merry Christmas Eve from our family to yours.
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