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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-weekend-discussing-timing-of-systems-next-week-and-longer-range-impacts-of-the-mjo-epo/
Mar 03
Tuesday Morning Rambles And Looking Back At The 2019-2020 Meteorological Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-and-looking-back-at-the-2019-2020-meteorological-winter/
Feb 29
March 2020 Outlook…
The majority of longer range models are bullish on a much warmer than normal month of March. Below you’ll see a snap shot of the latest JMA Weeklies, European Weeklies, and CFSv2. All are in relative agreement on a warm open to meteorological spring.
The other common theme? Strong signals for wetter, to much wetter, than normal conditions.
Note the first image of the JMA Weekly data is also leaning in the direction of wetter than normal conditions.
Indianapolis March “averages” include a low of 32.8°, a high of 51.7°, 3.56″ of rain, and 2.6″ of snow.
We’re leaning in the direction of a warmer than normal, wetter than normal month, as well. The reason? You guessed it- a predominantly positive EPO and the MJO that’s expected to rumble primarily through the warmer phases for this time of year.
We’ll tackle the latter first. Note the latest MJO plot takes things through Phases 4-5. Those are notorious warm phases in March as shown by the composite 500mb analogs below.
While the MJO plot above only goes out to mid-month, there are reasons to believe things won’t get into the cold phases and that we should cycle back into the warmer phases, or potentially remain in the “null” phase.
We’ll, of course, have to monitor the EPO for negative “jabs” that may try and take place, but think we’re looking at a predominantly positive EPO throughout the month. Additionally, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looks to also remain predominantly positive and this is also a warm signal for this time of year.
Accordingly, we’re leaning towards a warm, yet wet open to meteorological spring, including temperatures that should run 1° to 3° above normal across central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/march-2020-outlook/
Feb 20
VIDEO: Active Times Return Next Week; Updated Thoughts Into Mid-March…
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Feb 18
Stormy Pattern Returns Next Week: Walking Through Two Different Possibilities…
A much colder air mass will push into the Ohio Valley region today, taking up residence into the latter part of the work week. The good news? After we get rid of the clouds today, plentiful sunshine is expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as sprawling high pressure dominates.
This week’s quiet weather will quickly shift to a return of a stormy regime as we push into next week. From this distance, there’s really (2) camps the majority of modeling falls into. The European paints a pattern will undercutting storms beneath a developing block across Ontario and Quebec. This would present multiple opportunities for wintry weather next week across not only central Indiana, but a large chunk of the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile the GFS says the primary storm track will be northwest of our area, allowing a milder southwesterly flow to take hold and primarily rain.
So what’s more likely to happen? We’re leaning more towards the European solution with an evolving cold pattern (that begins stormy) as we close February and open March. Note the blocking next week across Quebec and Ontario eventually give way towards more of a wholesale eastern North America trough as we welcome in meteorological spring. This continues to raise our confidence on March opening much colder than normal.
The GFS ensemble also sees this colder pattern evolving to close February and open March.
Stay tuned as we get set for another active stretch of weather around these parts next week.
As for the shift back to cold, the longevity of said cold pattern lies solely on the progression of the MJO and EPO. More to come on that with our long range Thursday update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-pattern-returns-next-week-walking-through-two-different-possibilities/