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Category: MJO
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May 26
Sticky Now; Big Changes Arrive By The Weekend…
A warm and humid airmass will remain intact through the next 72 hours. Little impulses of energy scooting across the area will be all that’s needed to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not all will see rain. Due to the moisture content, those that do find themselves under a shower or storm can expect locally heavy totals. Thursday will likely offer up the best chance of more widespread thunderstorm activity.
Friday will continue to offer up scattered showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Once this front slides south, MUCH drier and cooler air will filter into central Indiana, leading to a fantastic weekend. A northeasterly flow around high pressure will create a much more refreshing feel. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are a good bet this weekend.
The cooler, more refreshing air won’t stick around for more than a few days before warmth rebuilds. This is in association with the MJO moving into Phase 1 (a phase favoring widespread warmth across the Lower 48 this time of year). Drier conditions should prevail as temperatures warm early June.
An interesting item to keep tabs on has to do with the potential of tropical “mischief” in the Gulf towards mid-late month. If you have beach plans down to those beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this is something I’d recommend keeping a close eye on over the next 2-3 weeks. Should something develop, the pattern would favor the central/ eastern Gulf it would appear from this distance.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sticky-now-big-changes-arrive-by-the-weekend/
May 24
VIDEO: Warm And Humid Memorial Day Weekend; Timing Out Features Into Mid-June…
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May 22
Long Range Update: Warmth Once Again Takes A Back Seat To Cooler Times; Drier Open To June?
With meteorological summer looming around the corner, will the pattern follow suit? At least in the short-term, warmth and humidity will have things feeling very much like summer, but this warmer regime likely won’t hold. The culprit? You guessed it- developing negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO re-amplifying with eyes sets on the cooler phases to open June.
After a chilly May (month-to-date), most will welcome this weekend’s heat and humidity with open arms! This is courtesy of finally kicking the “cut off” low to the curb and replacing its’ influence with an upper level ridge. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the short-term, but coverage will be of the “splash and dash” variety- very typical of summer-time!
This warmer regime will be fleeting as a combination of ingredients align in a manner to drive cooler, more refreshing air back into the region as we close May and open June. Most notably this is being driven by a negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO set to roll through Phases 7 and 8 during said period.
Accordingly, we note the models shifting things up quite significantly as we go into the Week 2 time period (May 29th-June 4th).
The cooler regime will likely also come with a drier overall pattern to open June, at least compared to average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-warmth-once-again-takes-a-back-seat-to-cooler-times-drier-open-to-june/
May 15
Long Range Update: Heat Comes In Spurts, But Still A Long Way Off From Sustained Warmth…
After a chilly May featuring all-time record cold to begin the month, the flip to warmer air has been welcome by many over the past 24 hours. This warmer regime will continue into the weekend before getting beaten back next week. This is due to a closed off upper level low that will actually manufacture it’s on chill across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during this time frame.
Sometimes it can be like pulling teeth to get these kind of features to leave and models can struggle (case in point, this upper low was originally modeled to be located over Nova Scotia- NOT the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic)!
Nevertheless, we believe the one time expected surge of heat next week will only be a scenario of “delayed, not denied.” By the time we head into Memorial Day weekend, we continue to believe legitimate summer warmth will move in (85°-90° stuff).
The new CFSv2 agrees with the European ensembles above.
Longer range (last few days of May and early June) will depend heavily on what goes on with a combo of the MJO and EPO/ PNA. 2 of 3 of these signals argue for cooler air to return during that time period.
We shall see how it plays out, but our official lean is towards the cooler side of things after the Memorial Day heat. From a precipitation perspective, after the short-term wet period, overall dry conditions are set to return as we wrap up May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-heat-comes-in-spurts-but-still-a-long-way-off-from-sustained-warmth/