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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/detailed-look-at-laura-and-early-thoughts-on-labor-day-weekend/
Aug 20
VIDEO: Humidity Increases This Weekend; Closely Watching The Gulf Into Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-humidity-increases-this-weekend-closely-watching-the-gulf-into-next-week/
Aug 13
Long Range Update: Closing Out August…
With a little over 2 weeks to go in meteorological summer, model data disagrees in the way the month- and season ends. That is, after the upcoming week where the consensus is cooler and drier than normal (we agree, as well). Let’s take a look at the data:
European Weeklies
CFSv2
GEFS
EPS
JMA
The American data and JMA Weeklies are coolest (compared to the European), but compared to Weeks 2 and 3, there’s better consensus. The initial week is also looking drier than normal- especially after a “smattering” of storms tomorrow and Saturday.
Let’s now take a look at Week 2:
European Weeklies
CFSv2
GEFS
EPS
JMA
This is where our idea begins to pivot more towards the JMA Weeklies and European data (warmer look). The reason primarily has to do with the MJO moving back into Phase 8 during this time period.
This is a warm phase in August.
Furthermore, the PNA ‘mean’ is forecast to trend off the positive “mountain” (that will help drive the cooler pattern for the upcoming week) and more towards neutral.
Phase 1 is also a warmer look for our part of the country and that’s the way we’re leaning for the last week of the month (despite the very cool CFSv2).
While not overly warm, we think the JMA has the best handle on the temperature pattern in the Week 3 timeframe, locally (seasonable to slightly above normal).
The pattern should also begin to trend wetter during this time period:
This matches up with Phase 1 of the Madden Julian oscillation:
So, to summarize, after a cool and dry period next week, we anticipate the pattern to trend warmer (more seasonable) and wetter to close the month and head into early September. One other item of note is that the tropics should really begin to heat back up during this period, as well. Of course, as is the case from time to time, that can be a wild card from a precipitation perspective. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) looks particularly busy late August through late September, but there’s simply no way to get more specific from this distance, including potential inland impacts. It’s worth keeping a close eye though.
Before we leave, the latest JAMSTEC seasonal data updated this morning and features a “torch” of a fall, along with a warm, wet winter, locally. That southeast ridge will have to be dealt with this winter. While still early, the early lean is for a warm start to winter (including holiday season). While there are some ingredients that may keep things more interesting than what they could be otherwise, from at least this point, this doesn’t appear as if it’ll be an “exciting” winter for lovers of snow and cold. Much more later- and again, we still have a long way to go…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-closing-out-august/
Aug 09
Thoughts Begin To Shift To Fall (And Winter)…
While we still have a few weeks left of meteorological summer, we’re hard at work finalizing our fall outlook and prep continues for winter. By the way, our fall outlook will be online Friday morning, the 28th.
From this distance, there’s obviously a risk involved with seasonal data that we’re reviewing and tweaks (particularly to the initial winter idea) will undoubtedly have to be made. In short, we anticipate a weak La Niña to dominate the fall and winter, with a robust MJO.
Of course, it’s important to remember, no La Niña is like the other and a simple “broad brush” approach never works.
Without question, the tropics will claim headlines through the fall. Unfortunately, like others, we anticipate a significant uptick in activity late August into October. A few major hurricanes are likely, as well. The Gulf of Mexico and Carolina coast appears particularly vulnerable…
Most computer model data is leaning towards a warm autumn. We’d agree, overall, but leaning wetter than the majority of data right now, due in large part to tropical impacts.
The coolest of the seasonal data is the CFSv2. It’s easy to interpret a cooler Central and East if the ridge and associated heat is so strong across the West. We will keep close tabs on trends over the next few weeks. Nina falls are notorious for at least a few weeks early on of unseasonably cool weather as well. Stay tuned.
As for winter, from this distance we’re bullish on a wetter, warmer than normal season, locally. Below normal snowfall is expected as of now. A dominant southeast ridge is expected to carry the day, at times flexing north into the TN and Ohio Valley.
Interesting, like fall, the CFSv2 is the “coolest” of the big 3 seasonal models. Again, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on trends. Given performance of recent winters past, you may say I’ll just go with the opposite of what these seasonal models say. You’d have good reason for doing so. Unfortunately, that southeast ridge almost seems like a lock though. It’s also becoming more difficult to ignore the trends over the past decade or two.
Much more later on both fall and winter! Enjoy your Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thoughts-begin-to-shift-to-fall-and-winter/
Aug 06
Long Range Update: Changes Loom For Mid-Late August…
August has opened unseasonably cool and refreshing. There’s even been a hint of fall to the air the past couple of mornings. The refreshing feel will continue as we wrap up the week, but changes for the warmer and muggier loom.
Even before we look at the respective model data for mid-late August, it’s important to note we’re basing our long range forecast (this was a byproduct in building our August Outlook) on the MJO heading into Phases 8 and 1 over the next couple of weeks. These are considerably warmer and wetter phases for our region and that fits our idea. Perhaps of interest beyond the next couple of weeks is that the amplitude should continue into Phases 2-3 as we wrap the month and head into early September. That, combined with other factors, will likely serve to re-ignite the tropics to close the month and head into the 1st month of meteorological fall.
Note the warmer, wetter look associated with Phases 8 and 1:
The CFSv2 is following this trend in the latest Weeks 1-2 outlook:
The latest European Weeklies are also in and paint a similar picture:
The JMA Weeklies follow a like path, but not as wet as we believe Week 2 will be:
The thinking here is that while we’re certain to warm in the mid-late month period, we still aren’t talking about any sort of prolonged periods of excessive heat. The more active upper air pattern will result in multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances scooting through the region to serve up more widespread, organized rain and storm chances. In short, we feel good about the rebound coming that should result in a month, as a whole, close to average in the temperature department with above to well above normal rainfall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-changes-loom-for-mid-late-august/