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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wetter-trends-next-week-potential-of-more-widespread-frost-late-next-week/
Sep 23
VIDEO: Reasons To Believe The Chill To Open October Has Some Staying Power…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-reasons-to-believe-the-chill-to-open-october-has-some-staying-power/
Sep 11
Long Range Update: Walking Through The Back Half Of September…
We believe the pattern during the 2nd half of the month will be driven by the MJO and PNA. The MJO is forecast into Phase 6 and 7 by the 18th-24th time frame.
Phase 6 is quite warm, but notice how the chilly air begins to push during Phase 7.
Neither phase is overly wet, but there’s hope compared to how dry it’s been over the past 2-3 weeks.
Interestingly enough, after a “neutral” phase with the PNA, both the GFS and European ensemble products predict a strong positive shift just after the 20th. This suggests to me that the week starting around that point should feature more widespread and stronger chill, compared to normal.
Let’s look at the latest model guidance, starting with the European ensemble:
Week 1 is still warmer than normal across our region, but notice the strong cooling by Week 2 (Sept. 18th-25th time frame).
The GFS ensemble is similar during the Week 1 and Week 2 time frame.
Given that strong PNA by late month, it wouldn’t surprise me to see these anomalies grow cooler as time gets closer during that Week 2 period.
Overall, the pattern continues to look dry, although there should be a better shot of rain/ storms as the cold front moves into the region that will ultimately deliver the much cooler air late month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-walking-through-the-back-half-of-september/
Sep 09
Big Temperature Spread Across The State; MJO Connection With The Longer Range Precipitation/ Temperature Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-temperature-spread-across-the-state-mjo-connection-with-the-longer-range-precipitation-temperature-pattern/
Sep 03
Long Range Update: Making Sense Of The “Noise” Into Mid-Late September…
Over the past couple of days we’ve noted a tremendous amount of chaos within the medium range forecast models for next week. At times, the American data was suggesting October-like chill while the European data painted a picture that would make mid-summer proud. The end result will likely end up being a blend of the two extreme solutions (cooler, most certainly, but not to the extent once forecast off the GFS- and a far cry from the extreme heat shown from the European). We’ll handle that with our short to medium term updates from here on out.
As we look ahead to mid and late September, the baseline of our forecast remains unchanged and that’s the idea that the MJO will move into Phases 5 and 6. At first, this is a cool phase for the time of year, but once to around the 18th-20th, we flip the script to a drastically warmer period, compared to average. Note the (2) MJO analogs below:
This is very similar to what the latest CFSv2 and European Weeklies show:
After what will likely be a much more active and wetter week ahead, the following couple of weeks take on a dry look from the models:
Interestingly, Phase 5 of the MJO is also a dry phase this time of year, locally:
Much more throughout the weekend!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-making-sense-of-the-noise-into-mid-late-september/