Category: MJO

Apr 14

Long Range Discussion: Never Trust A Sustained Warm Up With A Negative NAO This Time Of Year…

Updated 04.14.22 @ 5:23p

While we should see a period of significant moderation in the 8-10 day period, yet again, this is likely to only be a 2-4 day, transitional spike. This is likely a byproduct of the lag effect of a positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), but notice what happens longer term: a moderately negative NAO returns as we go into next weekend and beyond.

The transitional warm-up that will show itself next weekend and into early Week 2 will likely take a back seat to a renewed chilly (by late April standards) time of things before we close out the month. Ensemble guidance is picking up on this.

Then you add in the expected MJO movement over the next couple of weeks. Guidance shows us moving into Phase 1 late month. This is a phase in April that loves to drive more of a tendency for a trough over the East.

Longer range models, including the JMA and CFSv2 Weeklies, show the cooler look to wrap up the month, relative to normal. Given the alignment between the NAO and MJO, it’s hard to argue with this idea.

There will be more frequent opportunities for late season frost compared to normal as we wrap up April. Precipitation over the next couple of weeks should balance out close to average as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-discussion-never-trust-a-sustained-warm-up-with-a-negative-nao-this-time-of-year/

Apr 07

VIDEO: Long Range Outlook Into Late April…

Updated 04.07.22 @ 8:46p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-long-range-outlook-into-late-april/

Mar 16

Chill Isn’t Finished Yet…

Updated 03.16.22 @ 6:42a

While relative warmth will dominate headlines in the short-term, there’s plenty of reason not to buy into the idea that we’re finished with the chilly late winter temperatures just yet.

First, let’s start with the MJO. We’re in Phase 2 now, but what is most intriguing is the duration spent in Phase 3 (favors a pressing trough east and south similar to what image 2 shows below).

Should the MJO continue to move forward with similar amplitude then milder conditions would prevail as we get set to wrap up the month.

By that point, however, we’ll have to pay particularly close attention to the EPO and NAO phases. There are growing signals that both teleconnections will favor a return of colder than normal conditions prior to closing out the month. Couple that with the MJO movement and confidence continues to increase that we aren’t quite finished with the chill just yet. The question then becomes what takes place in April? We’ll lean into that with more detail during tomorrow’s update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/chill-isnt-finished-yet/

Mar 02

Winter Isn’t Done Yet…

Updated 03.02.22 @ 7:56p

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the null, or neutral, phase.

That means it’s time to start leaning heavier on the teleconnection blend. This time of the year, that encompasses all, including the NAO.

As we look over the course of the upcoming 10-14 days, we note rather strong alignment between the teleconnections favoring a return of a cold pattern. That is, of course, after the taste of spring that will continue into the day Sunday (aside from one “speed bump” tomorrow).

We note the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, is forecast negative until around the 12th and then back towards neutral. This is a cold signal for the east, relative to average.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast neutral through the bulk of the upcoming couple weeks. – Likely won’t have a significant impact on the overall pattern.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is forecast negative through the 13th before trending neutral. This should allow a southeastern ridge to remain in play to at least some degree which suggests a very active storm track into the Ohio Valley. As the colder air pushes east and runs up against the resistance from the southeastern ridge, late season wintry threats loom towards mid month.

Finally, the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) is forecast strongly negative which also implies cold should try and fight east.

With all of that said above, we note the ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) brings the trough back into the central and eastern portion of the country as we move out of the Day 1-6 period and suggests it’s far too early to think about putting away those winter clothes, or even the snow removal equipment just yet…

Upper air pattern- March 3-8
Upper air pattern- March 8-13
Upper air pattern- March 12-17

Note the colder than normal temperatures spilling back into the region next week and the week beyond.

We’re likely far from finished with snow or wintry precipitation either…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-isnt-done-yet/

Feb 28

VIDEO: Calm, Quiet Work Week Begins To Turn Much More Active Down The Road…

Updated 02.28.22 @ 8:30a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-calm-quiet-work-week-begins-to-turn-much-more-active-down-the-road/