Category: MJO

Nov 07

An Overall Warm Ride Into The Thanksgiving Holiday; Any Changes On The Horizon?

Updated 11.07.23 @ 5:15a

Despite a weekend setback that will continue into the early portion of Week 2, updated forecast model data continues to scream that we’ll run above to well above normal as the Thanksgiving holiday nears.

The pattern drivers support the warmer than normal call over the next couple of days. Note the primarily positive EPO and negative PNA.

This should help keep the ‘mean’ ridge position across the upper Mid West and Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks.

We’ll keep close eyes on the negative trend of that EPO towards the end of the period (image 1 above) to see if it continues in the coming days. If so, there’s the potential we could pull the anticipated western trough east in perhaps a bit quicker fashion than models currently see (say the last week of November, potentially).

As it is, another big pattern driver, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will begin to rev up in the coming days. A circle through Phase 7/8 this time of year supports the warm signals shown from the PNA and EPO.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/an-overall-warm-ride-into-the-thanksgiving-holiday-any-changes-on-the-horizon/

Oct 12

LR Update: Checking In On The Pattern Drivers To Close October…

Updated 10.12.23 @ 10:50a

As we roll into the second half of October, a look at the primary pattern drivers suggests there should be a lack of any sort of sustained above normal temperatures.

The PNA (image 1) should remain mostly in a positive state over the next couple weeks while the EPO (image 2) is expected to be in a neutral to negative state.

Furthermore, the MJO is forecast to sneak into Phase 1 late month. This is the correlation in October:

It’s hard to find much at fault with the NEW JMA Weeklies posted earlier today.

Temperatures

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Precipitation should run average to slightly below normal over the span of the upcoming (2) weeks:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-checking-in-on-the-pattern-drivers-to-close-october/

Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/

Sep 07

Long Range Chatter; NEW JMA Data On Winter…

Updated 09.07.23 @ 7:15a

September has opened significantly warmer than normal across the northern Plains and to a lesser extent into the southern Plains and along the northern tier. Indianapolis is running 5° above average through the 6th. We’ll chip away some at those toasty anomalies over the course of the next week, but still anticipate the month finishing slightly warmer than normal as a whole. We’re also running dry- more than half an inch below normal to open the month.

As we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the combination of the Madden Julian Oscillation sneaking into Phase 4, combined with a strongly positive PNA should help lead to more of a trough across the eastern portion of the country.

The NEW JMA Weeklies show that trough and associated cooler pattern (not cold by any means, but instead slightly below normal overall) taking up shop in the Week 1 and Week 2 time period below.

Week 1

Week 2

The latest ensemble guidance is also on board with the more seasonal look, especially compared to how the month opened.

Week 1

Week 2

Overall, the dry start to the month is anticipated to persist through the remainder of September as a whole.

Jumping ahead, the JMA seasonal data also updated today. In short, the model shows a warm fall giving way to a warm start to the winter before potentially taking a colder mid and late winter turn. Still far too early to put much stock in the specifics from this distance. The next couple of months will be very telling with the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest central PAC sea surface temperatures along with modeled trends deeper into the winter. Long ways to go; stay tuned…

JMA meteorological (Dec. through Feb.) winter idea:

Upper air pattern
Temperature anomalies
Precipitation anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-chatter-new-jma-data-on-winter/

Aug 31

VIDEO: Quiet Labor Day Weekend With Moderating Temperatures…

Updated 08.31.23 @ 7:45a The extended stretch of calm, quiet conditions will allows us to start looking ahead to the upcoming winter in earnest over the upcoming several days. We’ll…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-quiet-labor-day-weekend-with-moderating-temperatures/