Updated 01.14.21 @ 6:52p
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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-and-long-range-update-as-we-head-into-at-times-a-snowy-weekend-and-get-set-to-traverse-the-2nd-half-of-jan-open-feb/
Jan 07
Long Range Outlook: Pattern Drivers Over The Next Few Weeks…
We’ve opened the month of January on a very warm note, compared to normal. Through the first (6) days of the month, temperatures are running 6.3° above average.
Well above average temperatures have dominated the northern tier into the eastern 1/3 of the country to open the month.
Looking ahead, the basis of the forecast over the next 3-4 weeks will be built on favorable teleconnection phases (for cold) with the AO, NAO, and PNA, while the predominantly positive EPO keeps any sort of sustained/ significant cold hard to come by. This is a pattern that can turn quite active (and we think it will), but one that still doesn’t appear as if it’ll grow overly cold- compared to normal.
We continue to eye the MJO propagation. The latest European models keep things in the null phase, but the American products seemingly want to get things more amplified. For now we’re not biting, but if things did sneak into Phases 3-4 by late month, warmer times would follow.
Week 1
Week 2
Through the first couple of weeks, modeling is in about as good of agreement as you could expect. After a period of quiet weather (immediate term), the pattern should turn much more active next week and the week thereafter, locally. While I don’t think cold overwhelms the pattern as much as the GFS ensemble is showing, I would go with more of a blend between that and the warmer JMA/ European.
Snow should also begin to get laid down across more of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. This is a stout look from the latest European and GFS ensemble means over the next 2 weeks (our daily videos and short-term products will handle this):
Thereafter, the weekly products take the pattern in two different directions and confidence is much lower late month and to open February. If the MJO remains a non-factor, colder solutions should carry the day. On the other hand, if the MJO does, indeed, roll into Phase 3/4, warmer times should follow in the Weeks 3-4 period. Stay tuned.
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Jan 06
VIDEO: Enjoy The Quiet Weather While You Have It; Significant Changes Await…
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Dec 29
Warm, Wet Highlight January 2021 Outlook…
As we get set to flip the calendar to a new year, does the similar pattern that dominated in December roll over to January? Yes and no. While we anticipate the relative warmth to remain intact through the majority of the month, the storm track looks to aim itself through the Ohio Valley region for the better part of the month, helping generate above to well above average precipitation.
Forecast Models: Note the consensus on the warm (relative to average, of course), wet theme.
CFSv2
JMA
European
The MJO is becoming increasingly interesting. The European modeling wants to keep the MJO in the “null” phase, but the American modeling is showing the MJO get more amplified with time as we go through early-mid January.
Despite favorable phases for cold (AO and NAO), the Pacific pattern (namely strongly positive EPO) is wrecking havoc on any sort of cold trying to get involved in the pattern with any sort of staying power. Unless we can get a disruption of the polar vortex (big “IF” at this point), the relative warmth should continue to dominate.
We think this will be an active month with multiple storms of significance impacting the Ohio Valley. Despite our thinking that relative warmth will dominate, remember January, climatologically speaking, is the coldest month of the year. It would only take 1 or 2 of the expected storm systems tapping into only marginally cold air to generate more meaningful wintry weather and this is something we’ll keep an eye on in the weeks ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-wet-highlight-january-2021-outlook/
Dec 24
Long Range Update: Merry Christmas Eve From Our Home To Yours…
Right off the bat, the theme we want to drive home is that while active, the pattern ahead isn’t overly cold. Cold enough, at times, to create some wintry “fun and games?” Absolutely, but we’re not forecasting a widespread period of sustained cold over the next few weeks.
While the teleconnections favor durable cold from an AO/ NAO perspective…
…the EPO isn’t as favorable, and will likely present some warmer times in between the colder shots.
As it is, note how the blocking really matures from Week 1 to Week 2.
Undoubtedly this will force a stormy period into (at least) the first half of January. At times, initially, Great Lakes cutters are possible, but as we get closer to NYE and into the 1st week of January, itself, I think that’s the window that we really need to focus on for the potential of 1, if not 2, OHV winter storm threats.
The longer range, weekly models are trending in an interesting direction for the 1st full week of January, “marrying” the moisture with the cold, locally.
CFSv2
The JMA Weeklies are also intriguing from an upper air perspective (very similar to what the other ensemble data shows for the similar time frame).
While we’re not ready to unveil our January Outlook just yet (that will come next week), I think we’ll need to start keeping a closer eye on the MJO by the middle and latter part of the month. As things stand now, it appears we may sneak into Phase 2 to open the month (favors cold, locally) before potentially getting into a milder Phase 3 towards the end of the first week.
As things stand now, once the brief arctic intrusion gets out of here this weekend, temperatures will go into a “yo-yo” mode next week as (2) storm systems impact the area between Sunday and Wednesday. The date to keep a closer eye on for potential wintry impacts is more towards Jan. 2-4 time frame as the blocking gets into better position/ matures.
We’ll be back with a video update later today. Until then, Merry Christmas Eve from our family to yours.
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