Dec 09
Updated 12.09.23 @ 10:51a We’re tracking a narrow line of showers and embedded thunder this morning. This is in association with a cold front that will pass through central IN…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-evolving-active-pattern-into-mid-and-late-december/
Dec 08
Updated 12.08.23 @ 7:22a
As we hone in on the late December and early January pattern, there remains little if any change in the thought here that a more widespread cold pattern will evolve across the eastern 1/3 of the country. We note the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still showing that it wants to progress out of the traditionally warm December phases we’re in now into the colder phases post 12/20.
While we fully anticipate a more sustained colder than normal pattern to evolve in the 12/20 to 1/10 timeframe, I think this should be more of a situation that’s slightly colder than normal versus some sort of major arctic blast. All the same, as we get into the time of year when averages are close to their lowest, that will speak volumes given where we’ve been up to that point through the majority of December.
From a precipitation standpoint, these respective phases usually produce below normal precipitation across our neck of the woods, at least until we get into Phase 1 in January (interesting with the expected colder regime in place by that time period, heh?).
When we go look at the latest European ensemble precipitation anomalies over the next couple weeks (ending Dec. 22nd), the dry theme is alive and kicking. Frankly, it a very El Nino-like look (drier here while wetter across the Southeast and eastern seaboard) and shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Also of interest is the way the longer range weekly modeling shows the trough becoming more prevalent and sustained out in that post December 20th timeframe, continuing into early January.
European Weeklies: Winter wx fans also have to like all of the high latitude blocking on this run while the trough expands and sustains itself. Immediate take-away from yesterday’s run? Chilly and stormy close to the year and open to ’24.
JMA Weeklies: In similar fashion to the Euro, the model really expands and deepens the eastern trough Weeks 3-4. Again, it’s a chilly and stormy look.
In closing, we see no reason to deviate from our long standing idea of a pattern shift to chillier than normal around Christmas that should carry us into the first couple weeks of January. By that point, we’ll have to start monitoring other teleconnections (along with the MJO, of course), such as the NAO, to gain more clarity on the regime as we push into the 2nd half of meteorological winter.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-discussion-to-close-the-year-and-head-into-the-1st-half-of-january/
Dec 07
Updated 12.07.23 @ 7:53a Long winded discussion this morning diving into the long range pattern evolution through the holidays, including drivers behind the transition we believe is ahead. We also…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-a-lot-to-discuss-this-morning-between-the-short-term-and-long-range-pattern-evolution/
Dec 01
Updated 12.01.23 @ 7:44a
Though far from a blowtorch, the pattern over the next couple weeks (1st half of December) will feature milder than normal temperatures.
The pattern drivers, starting first and foremost with the MJO (more on the impacts late December in a moment), suggest milder than normal times should hold through the first half of December overall.
The EPO is also forecast predominantly positive with an erratic PNA pattern. Bottom line, all combined, this should promote an overall mild open to the month with a lack of any sort of significant winter weather threats.
The period opens wet and finishes (mid-month) that way with dryness in between.
Focusing in more on the MJO helps illustrate the story we’re telling not only over the next couple weeks, but into early 2024.
We’re currently in the warmest phases of the MJO this time of year (3, 4, and 5 in particular), but things start to change once to Phase 6 and beyond.
Many times, cold, arctic air begins to build on our side of the pole in Phase 6 and then busts loose in Phases 7 and 8. I think that’s on the table for us this year given where it appears the MJO wants to head and this is backed by long range teleconnection charts (namely the EPO and PNA) seemingly wanting to also head into the traditional colder phases, respectively.
This image will show the progression and corresponding upper level pattern nicely.
To close, while the first half of the month doesn’t appear to be overly kind to winter weather enthusiasts, it continues to look like the combination of the MJO, EPO, and PNA are aligning in a manner that will deliver more of a wholesale pattern change to colder than normal times past mid month and especially after the 20th. By that timeframe, we’ll have to start monitoring storm systems to potentially have a more wintry theme to them.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-things-progressing-as-planned-cold-pattern-looming-for-the-holidays-and-into-early-24/
Nov 30
Updated 11.30.23 @ 7:44a Clouds will increase through the afternoon and give way to light rain by evening. That rain will grow more widespread and heavier in nature as we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wet-weather-returns-setting-the-stage-for-the-holiday-pattern/