Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

Colder Pattern Ahead To Close October; Open November?

October, month-to-date, has been nothing short of a blow torch.  Officially, IND is running +9° through the 11th.

In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits.  Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.

The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts.  Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage.  The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.

A more significant pattern change appears dialed up prior to Halloween and this is one that seems suited to lead to more prolonged and significant cold to wrap up the month and head on into November.  Notice the evolution of things from October 21st to the 25th, courtesy of the GEFS off the fantastic tropicaltidbits.com.  Other model data is in general agreement, leading to a rather high confidence level for this time period.

It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later!  Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening.  Make it a great day!

No Comments Autumn, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest'17, Long Range Discussion, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.

No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Weather Rambles, Winter thoughts...

JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

  • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
  • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
  • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

Week 1:

The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

Week 2:

The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

Weeks 3-4

While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Word On The Weeklies…

New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook