Flooding is an issue across many central IN communities this morning. Particularly hard hit is the Muncie community. Zionsville’s Eagle Creek is also above flood stage this morning. Thankfully, breezy…
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Things are growing a bit dry around these parts. Officially we’re down 3.25″ for the month and close to 5″ on the year. (Climate information for IND: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ind)
Rains the past (14) days have favored the central region, falling apart as the systems push east and northeast. Texas and Oklahoma continue to make news headlines from severe flooding. – Too much of a good thing all at once.
Officially we’re not even listed in the “abnormally dry” shading, but that very well may change with the Thursday update. Courtesy of the Regional Drought Monitor:
Anytime you go through May with a significant rainfall deficit it raises a concern for continued dry times going through summer. Dry typically breeds dry this time of year, and eventually heat. That said, a strengthening El Nino will fight the recent trend. Around these parts weak to moderate summer El Ninos tend to yield average (to slightly above) precipitation and average (to slightly below normal) temperatures. Recent trends, combined with longer term forecasts certainly prove to lead to a battle in the coming weeks and months…
Shorter term as we progress through the coming days, here’s how we currently assess rainfall coverage:
* Rainfall potential through the weekend: 0.50″-1″ for most, with locally heavier totals under stronger storms.
A true taste of spring weather is on the way for the middle of the week as highs zoom to around 60° (give or take a few degrees) for many.…
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It’s another frigid start to the day and this seems to be the story of the winter of 2024-2015. The weather roundup of 7am temperatures and March 6th snow cover…
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After a long and cold winter, many are excited about hearing of the prospects of a warm up and first true taste of spring.
While the European data has totally bought in to the impressive “spring fling” next week, the GFS isn’t as excited of the potentially warmer times. Case in point, the GFS and European couldn’t be in more different camps for mid and late next week. Where the GFS has low/ mid 40s for highs the European has low/ mid 60s for highs. What’s 20 degrees amongst friends?!
Wild model swings and disagreements are common when pattern changes are taking place. While we might not get as warm as the Euro. would imply, it’s a safe bet we’ll be considerably warmer than the chilly GFS readings.
Note the AO and NAO strongly positive through the next 10-15 days. This is the time of the year when these teleconnections can impact our region’s weather in the most significant way. Both of these are warm signals taken at face value.
Note the pattern flip to a “flat” ridge by Day 10, indicative of the milder times ahead.
However, by Day 15 we notice the Alaskan ridge redeveloping. This is NOT a signal for warm weather across our part of the region, as the steering currents would tap available cold air and direct it south into the Mid West and Ohio Valley.
So, what do we take from this? We’re going to warm next week without question. While the extent of the warming is up for debate, the overall milder times for a 5-7 period is a good call at this point. On the flip side, we’re not ready to buy into the idea that spring is here for good just yet. The building Alaskan ridge by the end of Week 2 would imply a cold close to March, and potentially continuing into early April.
Another item to keep a close eye on the upcoming 4-6 weeks? Those NAO and AO signals. Should they remain predominately positive this time of year then it’ll be exceptionally challenging to get any sort of cold pattern to lock in for more than a day or two.