Mar 04
We wanted to take the time to quickly update you on a couple of very minor events in here tomorrow evening and again Saturday. Additionally, we’re monitoring the prospects of…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-update-on-the-mid-month-storm-brewing/
Feb 23
We’ll have your updated 7-Day forecast posted later today.
The latest mid and long range guidance continues to suggest we’re heading into another prolonged period of below normal temperatures.
Ensemble data (below) shows ridging in the northeast Pacific, extending into Alaska and this pattern has been one of the big reasons as to why we’ve dealt with so many arctic intrusions this winter. (The first image is a look at the upper air pattern dated Feb. 26th and the second is dated March 11th).
Ridging in this particular part of the globe often times dislodges the cold air and someone “down stream” has to deal with below normal air. The recipient of being “down stream” has just so happened to be the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern half of the country this winter. That doesn’t show any signs of changing over the next couple weeks, at least. It’s possible we could deal with a day or two of milder weather thrown in the mix, but the overwhelming majority of the upcoming couple weeks looks much colder than normal.
The result is a continuation of much below normal cold in our part of the country. The following graphics illustrate temperature anomalies (in celsius) centered on 5 days between Feb. 23rd-28th and March 6th-11th. Below normal temperatures continue.
A couple of additional thoughts around the upcoming cold pattern: While we can’t show the images here (license issues), the “secret” European weeklies and ensemble data continues the cold, stormy regime across the east for the better part of the upcoming 30 days, with a couple of brief periods of milder, “calmer” weather.
Finally, the CFSv2 suggests the cold regime continues, as well. The first image shows upcoming weeks 1 and 2 and the second shows temperature anomalies weeks 3 and 4. Note the CFSv2 shows southeast ridging developing towards the end of the period, potentially suggesting a big fight goes on between the cold to the north and the budding spring conditions to the south- a stormy suggestion…
In closing, it’s important to note that all of the fancy graphics shown above are simply model guidance and it’s up to us, the forecasters, to interpret the data the best way possible to put together the most accurate mid to long range ideas for you, the viewer. While nothing is a guarantee in this business, it does appear as if chances are quite high that our region deals with another few weeks of colder than normal conditions and potentially active weather ahead. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-cold-pattern-reloads/
Feb 16
|
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/ 25 |
15/ 33 |
20/ 39 |
24/ 42 |
35/ 57 |
28/ 45 |
28/ 50 |
|
0.00” |
1-3″ (and ice) |
0.00” |
Trace |
0.50″-1.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.00” |
Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a
Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day. Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24). Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!
Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana. The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast. This will be a “thump and go” type event.
As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario). We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north. Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends. For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch. Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.
Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.
Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week. We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.
By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region. Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present. Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.
Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief. We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-today-messy-monday-ahead/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Jan 21
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern. Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:
As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total. Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero. Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February. I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February. That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
Okay, okay, back to the near term… Let’s start with tomorrow! After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening. Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening. We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana. While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes. White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow. Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:
Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday. We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night. Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.
As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period. Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north. Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.
Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend. Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models. We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday. Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead… Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.
As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker. We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana. The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February. Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above. That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank? Absolutely not.
The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February. They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty. Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!
Keep the shovel handy! Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/historic-snow-season-keeps-rolling-along/
