Category: Long Range Discussion

It may only be November, but we’ve been locked in the grips of Old Man Winter for the past few weeks (really since the early season snow back at Halloween).  While some “relaxation” will likely occur at a point during the first half of December, simply taking a look at the latest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies has to put a smile on the faces of those wanting cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter.

Let’s take a look at the highlighted features above, starting in the Atlantic and moving towards the Pacific.

1.) Warm water off the eastern seaboard: Suggests some ridging is likely from time to time that could force would-be east coast storms inland.  This is a factor in our forecasted above normal snowfall for the winter of 2014-2015.

2.) Modoki El Nino: A Modoki event, or central-based, El Nino is far different than an east-based El Nino event and the associated “blow torch” that can ensue for the winter months.  Computer modeling continues to suggest a weak to borderline moderate Modoki event is in the cards.  The sensible weather here in the states is vastly different from this type of event than many of the broad-brushed El Nino impact maps you may see on various media outlets.  This is a cold, snowy look for many central and east.

3.) North-central PAC Waters: Water temperature profiles in the north-central PAC region continues to be an item we at IndyWx.com lean heavier on in looking at our longer range forecast outlooks.  The ring of warmth around the colder north-central anomalies in the Pacific suggests plenty of Alaskan ridging ahead in the coming months.  Downstream impacts?  Central and eastern troughiness and associated colder than normal air.

As we state, there are MANY drivers that impact the weather, and this is simply taking the SST anomalies (1 ingredient) and dissecting the impact that they alone would have on the region.  There are many other factors that we look at as we forecast long range weather.  Taken verbatim, the SST anomalies suggest we’re on the right track suggesting a colder, snowier than normal winter looms…  By the way, if you haven’t seen our winter outlook that was posted back on 10.19.14, you can view it here.