Category: Long Range Discussion

Lunchtime Rambles: Flooding & Severe Highlight Short-Term; Wind-Whipped Snow Midweek And Looking Ahead To An Opportunity For A Briefly Calmer Window…

Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a

I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.

A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.

II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.

Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.

III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.

All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/

Long Range Report: Active Pattern As We Head Into And Through April…

Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a

Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.

The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3/4

To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.

Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.

Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-active-pattern-as-we-head-into-and-through-april/

VIDEO: Weekend Sunshine; Tracking 2 Storm Systems In The Week Ahead And Looking At The Early-April Pattern…

Updated 03.23.24 @ 10:51a A quiet weekend will turn more active as we open the new work week. We’re tracking this system and another storm late in the week. Both…

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VIDEO: Light Rain Returns Friday; Cooler, Wetter Than Normal Pattern Anticipated O/ The Next 2 – 3 Weeks…

Updated 03.21.24 @ 7a The area will receive a glancing blow from our late week low pressure “tag team” that will deliver light rain Friday (most areas will be under…

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Long Range Report: Cooler, Drier Week 1 Turns Wetter To Close March; Open April…

Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a

Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).

We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).

Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.

Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.

What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).

The JMA also sees the wetter regime.

This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.

Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.

Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/