Category: Long Range Discussion

Feb 03

Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Stormy Pattern Shifts To A Return Of Significant Cold?

In the short-term, there’s no getting around the very active pattern in place. As we’ve been discussing, we’ll find ourselves “smack dab” in the middle of a battle ground between a stubborn southeast ridge and building cold to our northwest. The fight in between will yield well above normal precipitation over the next couple of weeks.

Over the upcoming (10) days, expect a roller coaster ride in the temperature department as the battle takes place. While the most anomalous warmth is taking place now (IND is on pace to set a new record high temperature before the end of the day), relative warmth will continue to dominate into midweek before colder air presses and wins out.

After Monday’s light rain, we’re targeting (3) opportunities for significant precipitation across the region:

I. Tuesday night-Wednesday (still may include a risk of freezing rain across north-central communities).

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday night-Friday morning (ending as light snow)

When all is said and done, model data is in agreement on significant rainfall totals across central Indiana (2″ to 3″ amounts will be common by Friday).

Thereafter, confidence is high on colder air returning as we close the week and head into next weekend.

Guidance suggests that we still need to remain abreast of the potential of a more widespread wintry event late next weekend and this is something we’ll continue to keep close tabs on as we progress through the upcoming week. As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a major event, but stay tuned.

As we look ahead, we’ll have to continue keeping a close eye on the MJO. Today’s update shows the majority of data swinging things into Phase 8 by mid to late month. Should that come to fruition, prospects of another significant cold spell loom large…

Fun times ahead- no matter how you look at it! 🙂

Enjoy the game!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pre-super-bowl-rambles-stormy-pattern-shifts-to-a-return-of-significant-cold/

Feb 03

Sunday Morning Video Update: Walking Through The Active Week Ahead; Looking Towards Mid-Feb…

A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-update-walking-through-the-active-week-ahead-looking-towards-mid-feb/

Feb 02

Plot Thickens With The MJO…

There’s a lot of interest (no matter the time of year) in the medium to long range weather pattern. With operational modeling updating up to (4) times per day during this time range, there’s always at least some degree of fluctuation between model runs. At times, that fluctuation is more significant than others. It’s at those times when it’s more important than ever to lean on analogs, teleconnections, and other pattern drivers.

Recall that the MJO has been hyper active for the better part of this season- and has played a significant role in the winter pattern through the 1st half of this season. When the MJO features significant amplitude, it’s imperative that we pay close attention.

With that said, we note today that the models handle the current MJO pulse much differently between one another over the next couple of weeks.

For example, let’s go with the GEFS (image 1), curling the MJO into Phase(s) 6 and 7. From a temperature perspective, this is how that would be reflected at the surface

Phase 6
Phase 7

With that said, the European is more bullish heading into Phase 8 by mid-February. If correct, that opens the door for more significant (and widespread) cold.

Phase 8

We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on the MJO over the next week, or so, and hope for better overall agreement between the data. However, given a balance of current teleconnections, SSTs, and MJO, we continue to believe the pattern over the next few weeks will transition from a “battle zone” initially towards one that features cold overwhelming the region by mid-month.

There will likely be rather wild temperature swings through the first 1/3 of the month and that will help power the active pattern. At the end of the day, we expect well above normal precipitation, near-average to slightly colder than normal temperatures, and above average snowfall during the month of February here across central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/plot-thickens-with-the-mjo/

Feb 01

6-10 Day Update: Active Times Ahead…

While we’re in the process of pulling out of the bitterly cold air mass, there’s no shortage of action when we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks.

Confidence remains high that the upcoming short-term period (Days 2-6) will flip to much warmer than average. A couple days that at least flirt with the 60 degree mark can be expected Sunday and Monday.

While rain will return to the forecast Monday, the milder air sure will be a nice change of pace from the bitterness of the past several days. Enjoy it!

With that said, there are continued indications that the warmth won’t hold.

As we look at the latest medium range ensemble guidance (Days 6-10), the GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement.

We note this is a pattern conducive for above normal precipitation during the period. With cold air likely to be “pressing” towards the region, it’s a pattern that has to raise an eyebrow for at least the potential of a wintry threat during this time frame. There should be plenty of low level cold air available late next week and next weekend. With the resistance shown from the SE ridge, potential “fun and games” are on the table during this timeframe as waves of energy likely ride along a slow (at times stalled) frontal boundary.

Keep an eye on the 2/7 through 2/10 window for possible wintry impacts, locally…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/6-10-day-update-active-times-ahead/

Jan 24

Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…

We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.

Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:

EPO

AO

NAO

PNA


Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:

CFSv2 Weeklies

Weeks 1 & 2

Weeks 3 & 4

JMA Weekly

GEFS

While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.

Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.


Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:

Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.

Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-cold-pattern-isnt-going-anywhere-fast/