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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-video-update-may-set-to-open-warmer-than-average/
Apr 19
VIDEO: Vigorous Upper Low Impacts Our Weather Into Saturday Before Easter Improvements; Looking Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-vigorous-upper-low-impacts-our-weather-into-saturday-before-easter-improvements-looking-ahead/
Apr 10
Strong Storms Thursday Night; Early Summer Ideas…
The daytime Thursday will be dominated by a summer-like feel as highs approach the 80 degree mark, along with an increasingly gusty SW wind ahead of an approaching cold front. We’ll stay dry through the day and it’s not until we get to the overnight hours when storm chances will begin to increase.
More specifically, we think the hours between 12a and 5a will offer up the best chance of a slow moving line of storms to track across central Indiana. A couple of these storms could produce damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with widespread amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ with a few 1″+ totals likely by the time we get to sunrise Friday. The rain will be well to our east by lunchtime Friday and a dry close to the day is on tap.
On the heels of this storm will come another wet weather maker Saturday night and Sunday and tomorrow morning’s video update will have more details around timing and rainfall amounts with that system.
Early Summer Ideas
I. Weak El Nino anticipated to persist through the Summer of 2019.
II. Warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast.
We’ll have our complete official Summer Outlook posted during the first week of May, but wanted to share our early thoughts. Overall, a warmer than average summer is expected with average to slightly above normal rainfall, locally.
The warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) raise concern for the potential of well above average precipitation across the Southeast and MidAtlantic regions. Additionally, those warm water conditions also mean we’ll need to keep close eyes on the potential of tropical activity early on in the season in the Gulf or off the SE coastline.
Much more next month, including graphics!
Talk with you bright and early in the AM!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-storms-thursday-night-early-summer-ideas/
Apr 04
Pattern Returns To An Active Time Of Things…
One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/
Apr 02
Negative NAO Set To Present Mid-Month Headaches…
In case you missed it, you can find our April Outlook here. We want to ensure we’re very transparent and never shy away from the products we put out there. With that said, as difficult as it can be at times, it’s critically important that adjustments are made when necessary. The fact of the matter is that medium and long range modeling has had a glaring error since late winter and early spring. First, it was the EPO and now the NAO that appear to create all sorts of chaos in the medium to longer range period.
We note the NAO (or North Atlantic Oscillation) is set to drop to as negative of levels since January and some data would suggest we’re going to go even lower.
A negative NAO in April would “normally” lead to this kind of temperature pattern:
The normally reliable European model had this kind of pattern for mid-April only a couple of days ago:
Today, we’re talking about this kind of pattern for the exact same time period:
That’s a “night and day” difference. The reason? The model is beginning to catch on to the significant negative NAO developing. Accordingly, latest data delivers incredible high latitude blocking and subsequent cooler anomalies across a large portion of the Lower 48 for the mid-month period. (Note how close the below temperature pattern in the Day 10-15 time frame is to the analog a few images above. Remarkable stuff).
This time of year won’t result in sustained colder than normal conditions and transient warmth will make itself felt from time to time, but it’s a far cry from the sustained warmth originally expected for mid-April.
As we reflect back to the struggles long range models had with the negative EPO and now flip the page forward to the negative NAO problems, it certainly leads to lower than normal confidence in long range data and leads to a “cause for pause” as we put together monthly/ seasonal data into the upcoming late spring and summer months. Transitional seasons (spring and fall) can always be fickle, but some of the issues with the drivers this spring are in a different league.
Enjoy the “spring fling” that will develop late this week and weekend. The warmest air of the year is still on deck.
Longer term, well sometimes you have to throw ideas that have been made of long hours and hard work in the trash and start over from scratch…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/negative-nao-set-to-present-mid-month-headaches/