Category: Long Range Discussion

Late July and August have been known to produce some serious heat around these parts from time to time. However, it continues to look like this will not be the case this year.

We’ve already discussed the impacts of the negative EPO. (By the way, modeling continues to take the EPO even more strongly negative with every passing update). This supports the cooler idea we have for early August.

Now we see the PNA forecast to trend more positive through the better part of early August. This, too, supports the cooler pattern that will be with us through the period.

It should come as no surprise to see the models trend stronger with the eastern trough in the Weeks 2-3 time period. This period will likely feature a couple of strong frontal passages that serve as a reminder that the fall season is just around the corner.

Note the latest GEFS deepen the trough from the Day 5-10 period to Days 10-15.

Not only will this serve to provide a rather lengthy period of cooler than normal temperatures through the 1st half of August, but should also help inject wetter conditions to boot (in large part due to the frequent nature of frontal passages).

At a time of year that can feature brutal periods of heat and/ or dry conditions, it sure continues to be the exact opposite this year!

Enjoy your Saturday, friends!