Category: Long Range Discussion

With only (11) days left in meteorological summer, thoughts continue to focus more on the upcoming fall season.

While fall foliage is still 5-6 weeks away from “prime time,” medium range computer models continue to suggest the new season will kick off on an unseasonably cool note.

Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1st and runs through the end of November. With that said, you don’t need me to tell you that Labor Day can still produce “summer-like” heat around these parts. On average across central Indiana, we’d expect Labor Day weekend to produce highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s.

That might be a different story this year as a negative EPO pattern dominates. The end result will likely feature a rather anomalous trough digging into our portion of the country to open up the new season. This is supported with solid agreement between the GEFS and EPS as shown below:

This will likely result in temperatures around 10 degrees (F) below average and most certainly serve as notice that a new season is upon us.

Now will this be an official end to summer-like warmth? Likely not, as there are reasons to believe unseasonably warm weather will build back into the region behind this cool blast. While we don’t want to use this post as our official fall outlook, despite it likely feeling very much like fall as the 1st full weekend of college football kicks off, we think there’s likely more warmth in the tank before we can signal the “all clear” on Summer ’19…