Category: Long Range Discussion

May 01

Welcome To May: Threat Of Record Cold Week 2…

A gorgeous Friday is dialed up complete with plentiful sunshine and temperatures warming quickly from the mid and upper 30s into the mid and upper 60s.

A couple weak impulses of energy will scoot through the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours and while they will spark a few showers/ embedded thunder predawn Saturday and again Saturday night, most of the daytime hours Saturday will also feature dry conditions.

That begins to change Sunday as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to rumble across central Indiana, especially during the morning hours. Locally heavy downpours are likely.

A quick 1”-1.25” is a good bet across the heart of the state with this system Sunday morning.

Dry conditions will quickly return Sunday evening into Monday thanks to high pressure briefly building back into the region. This will lead to a pleasant open to the work week with highs topping out in the middle 60s.

Unsettled weather returns as early as Tuesday with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front.

Though we’ll certainly turn cooler for the middle to latter part of the week, this will only be a precursor to what lies ahead behind yet another strong cold front late next week.

The air will likely challenge records into the Week 2 time frame (May 8th-14th), including the threat and increased likelihood of late season frost/ freezes. We also likely haven’t seen the last of the snow flakes for the season either…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-to-may-threat-of-record-cold-week-2/

Apr 30

May 2020 Outlook: From One Extreme To The Other?

While a good chunk of the 1st half of the month likely features below normal temperatures, is there potential for a “sudden summer” flip in the pattern for the 2nd half of the month? Let’s discuss!

First and foremost, averages in May for Indianapolis feature lows rising from the upper 40s to the upper 50s by month’s end, highs increasing from the upper 60s to the upper 70s, and 5.05″ of rain. Of note, on average, May is the wettest month out of the year in Indianapolis.

Teleconnections are aligned in a manner to drive rather widespread and persistent cooler than normal anomalies across the eastern portion of the country through the better part of the 1st half of May. Note the positive PNA and negative EPO and associated upper air pattern.

A persistent eastern trough will deliver an extended period of below normal temperatures through the first couple weeks of the month.

As chilly Canadian high pressure builds south behind departing cold fronts, we’ll have to remain on guard for the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions lingering into the middle of the month.

To no surprise, the cool Canadian air will be much drier than a “typical” May pattern that can occasionally tap into the Gulf of Mexico. Accordingly, the pattern should run drier than normal through the 1st half of the month.

While we’re confident on the cool, dry (relative to average) theme carrying the day through the 1st half, there will likely be a snap back in the pattern that will promote at least the threat of a “sudden summer” regime during the latter part of the month. Timing this adjustment will be a bit challenging, but we believe that’s on the table at some point late week 3 or week 4. Accordingly, we’re building our May Outlook to feature this warmer (to hotter) potential late month or else it would be even cooler across the East- overall.

We’ll, obviously, also have to keep close tabs on the MJO throughout the middle and latter part of the month for influences on the pattern.

Without further ado, here’s our May 2020 Outlook…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/may-2020-outlook-from-one-extreme-to-the-other/

Apr 28

VIDEO: Damp Midweek; Late Season Frost/ Freeze Threat Alive And Kicking Into Mid-May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-damp-midweek-late-season-frost-freeze-threat-alive-and-kicking-into-mid-may/

Apr 27

VIDEO: Tuesday Night Storms; Chilly Air Reinforces Itself After Briefly Milder Period…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tuesday-night-storms-chilly-air-reinforces-itself-after-briefly-milder-period/

Apr 27

Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…

We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.

Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).

Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.

Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday night. A few of these may be strong to severe.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.

By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.

Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.

The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/