Category: Lake Effect Snow

Oct 22

Plot Thickens Around Halloween Into Early November…

As we look ahead to Halloween, the pattern continues to look mighty “interesting” to say the least. A deeply negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) will take the drivers seat and potentially lead to some early wintry “fun and games” as we close out the month and head into early November.

Ensemble data, centered on Halloween, is in excellent agreement with respect to the overall upper air pattern. That said there are subtle differences in the handling of the southeast ridge.

These seemingly subtle differences at 500mb can mean a world of difference in terms of the resulting weather we deal with here at the surface.

We’re confident there will be a rather significant weather event on or around Halloween, but caution we’re far from being able to provide details around the specifics. The early thinking is that a storm system provides a round of showers and thunderstorms just before the holiday with sharply colder conditions pouring into the area on Halloween, itself, with the threat of the first lake effect snow outbreak of the year heading into next weekend. Stay tuned. Run-to-run differences within the operational suites will be significant in the days ahead. It’s far too early to latch on to any one particular solution.

Regardless, with high latitude blocking in place, a colder than average period of weather is likely as we move through early November. The brunt of the cold, relative to normal, should be featured across the central Plains.

More on the longer range November pattern in the days ahead. Our official November Outlook will be posted over the weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/plot-thickens-around-halloween-into-early-november/

Oct 18

Friday Morning Rambles…

I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.

South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.

II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.

The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.

The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.

The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.

Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…

III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-5/

Oct 16

VIDEO: Predominantly Colder Than Average Pattern Takes Hold; Timing Out Storm Systems Through The 2nd Half Of October…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-predominantly-colder-than-average-pattern-takes-hold-timing-out-storm-systems-through-the-2nd-half-of-october/

Oct 15

Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-a-tale-of-extended-summer-that-gives-way-to-sudden-winter/

Oct 14

Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?

A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.

Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.

A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).

We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.

Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.

This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.

This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…

Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/taste-of-winter-before-months-end/