Early Week Storm Delivers Strong Storms; Taste Of Early Autumn…

After we get rid of the morning fog, a mostly dry weekend is in store for central Indiana.  The potential is present for a widely scattered shower for southern and eastern areas (mainly south of the city), but most of the immediate region will remain rain-free through the weekend.

Attention is now focused on a storm system that will deliver a return of unsettled weather to open the work week, followed by a “taste” of fall for midweek:

A surface low will move out of Iowa Monday evening into the Great Lakes region Tuesday.  A trailing cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will return as early as Monday afternoon, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday.  While not a textbook set-up for widespread severe weather by any means, enough ingredients are in place to at least raise an eyebrow for a few severe storms ahead of the cold frontal passage.  Don’t be surprised if the ‘marginal’ risk is upgraded to a ‘slight’ risk for Tuesday in future updates from the Storm Prediction Center.

Once the cold front moves through, a rather abrupt wind shift will drive a much drier and cooler air mass southeast and it’ll feel like early autumn around these parts as we progress through the second half of the work week.  Not only will the significant drop in humidity be nice, but some outlying areas away from the city will likely fall into the 40s for overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings.  Highs will only top out in the mid to upper 70s.

Looking longer term, summer isn’t finished just yet.  Ridging will return for the Labor Day weekend and support building warmth as we put a wrap on August and open September.

VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…

The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening.  Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).

MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week.  Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.

Strong Cold Front Delivers Storms And Another Surge Of October-Like Air…

Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit.  We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.

However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches.  A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms.  The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.

After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in.  As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.

6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar

Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass.  Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October.  We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.

 

Pleasant Labor Day Weekend; Another Cool Shot Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Dry Labor Day weekend
  • Cold front arrives early Tuesday
  • Another cool shot next week

Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday.  Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches.  We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east.  Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday.  We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning.  Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.

A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday.  Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer.  That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state).  Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region.  With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropics:  Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week.  It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely.  In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″