Category: JMA

Oct 26

Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…

The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region.  Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average.  Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

28 Day Mean:

After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region.  This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall.  If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/analyzing-the-new-jma-weeklies/

Sep 14

Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…

The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week.  JMA first:

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:

  • Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
  • As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on

Now…the CFSv2:

Weeks 1-2

Weeks 3-4

Key take-aways:

  • Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.

While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall.  They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.

To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold.  Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend.  This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD).  After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air.  That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-update-jma-cfsv2-euro/

Jul 27

JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • An unseasonably cool close to July
  • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
  • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

Week 1:

A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

Week 2:

The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

Weeks 3-4:

Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-hottest-of-the-summer-is-behind-us/

Jul 20

JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
  • Seasonal pattern takes hold
  • Heat builds across the Northeast region

Week 1:

Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

Week 2:

It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

Weeks 3-4:

Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/

Jun 29

Thursday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning.  In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago.  Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!

2.)  With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday.  Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning.  Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.

3.)  While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week.  We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region.  Again, details still have to be determined.  While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.

4.)  The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-3/