Updated 10.12.23 @ 10:50a

As we roll into the second half of October, a look at the primary pattern drivers suggests there should be a lack of any sort of sustained above normal temperatures.

The PNA (image 1) should remain mostly in a positive state over the next couple weeks while the EPO (image 2) is expected to be in a neutral to negative state.

Furthermore, the MJO is forecast to sneak into Phase 1 late month. This is the correlation in October:

It’s hard to find much at fault with the NEW JMA Weeklies posted earlier today.

Temperatures

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Precipitation should run average to slightly below normal over the span of the upcoming (2) weeks: