Sep 16
6:51a, 9.16.15 I tried my best to stay up late enough last night to post this update, but decided to finally turn in after nearly two collisions with me falling…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/16/updated-jamstec/
Sep 14
September is still running much warmer than normal, despite the recent well below average regime. See the temperature anomalies over the past (7) days: and the month-to-date: …
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/14/monday-morning-weather-rambles-3/
Aug 13
We may only be in mid August, but the IndyWx.com office is busy putting together initial thoughts around fall and winter (it’ll be here before you know it)! The upcoming…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/13/thoughts-shifting-to-fall-and-winter/
Nov 27
From the IndyWx.com family to yours, we wish you a very happy Thanksgiving! Thank you for taking the time to read our content daily and for all of your support…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/27/catching-up-and-looking-ahead/
Oct 06
Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).
Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days. The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday. This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.
After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday. Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.
Saturday is a tough call at this point. The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.
Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.
7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model. Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″. The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.
Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.
Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…
Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region. Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)! Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).
Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region… BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October. Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/
Aug 16
With each passing day our thoughts turn more and more towards the upcoming busy fall and winter months ahead. Among the vast array of data to sort through, we wanted to show you the latest JAMSTEC (Japan Agency For Marine-Earth-Science And Technology) take on the upcoming fall and winter. Admittedly, we’re still a ways off from being able to tell you with any sort of certainty what the upcoming winter holds in store, as far as the “concrete details” go. That said, thinking, at least here, remains on the side of the camp that believes another colder/ snowier than normal winter lies ahead for our region.
As far as the fall goes, we’re likely to see a predominant southeast ridge dominate the pattern, with more of a “back and forth” fight across our immediate neck of the woods. In some ways, we’re beginning to see this type reflection in the pattern this week.
In any event, the latest JAMSTEC fall (Sept-Nov) idea as far as temperature anomalies go:
Note the southeast ridge should keep the south-central and south-east (on up along the eastern seaboard) a touch warmer than average. The center of the cool will back west for a time to include the Rockies, N Plains, and northern Lakes. Again, more of a back and forth fight here, and quite active!
Before we close, as stated above, we think another cold, snowy winter lies ahead for our area. The JAMSTEC remains bullish on another cold winter (Dec-Feb) for the 3rd month in a row:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/jamstec-take-on-upcoming-fall-winter/
Aug 02
Happy Saturday! Upper level energy will hang around the region today, creating a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Friday, a few of these could be strong…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/02/saturday-morning-rambles-3/
Jul 01
It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already. Where is the summer going?! I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week. Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin! 🙂
If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall! Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)? Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…
1.) Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s. That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s. The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday. Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!
2.) Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday. By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds. Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.
3.) Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.
Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.
4.) Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set). The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…
As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event). Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.
Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time. Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.
An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns. Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…
Have a relaxing night and God Bless!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/