1.) Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning. In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago. Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!
2.) With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday. Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning. Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.
3.) While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week. We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region. Again, details still have to be determined. While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.
4.) The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.
Highlights:
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!