Category: Independence Day

VIDEO: Looking At The Longer Range…

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NEW JMA Weeklies Shed Light On The Long Range…

Changes are brewing in the longer range and the latest JMA Weeklies illustrate this nicely.

Week 1

No changes are needed to the expected significant heat wave to open the month of July.  Heat and humidity will reach excessive levels at times- heat indices of 100° to 110° at times.  While isolated coverage of storms are possible a few of the days (primarily afternoon and evening variety), it’s a dry pattern, overall.

Week 2

The pattern is in a transitional period during this time frame as the upper ridge retrogrades west.  While still warm, the hottest conditions will shift west under the upper ridge.  The other take-away?  An active northwest flow returns with an emerging “ring of fire” pattern.

Weeks 3-4

While perhaps a bit quick, the model reverses things entirely by the Weeks 3-4 time frame.  There’s no denying we think the hottest period of the summer will be behind us by mid-July, and while this type pattern shown below is where we think the dominant overall pattern is heading for the second half of summer, the model may be a bit aggressive here.  Regardless, the Weeks 3-4 time frame are expected to not only reverse, but turn cooler than average over the Great Lakes region.

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VIDEO: Heat And Humidity Build This Weekend, Can’t Rule Out Storms Either…

This evening’s video update discusses the building heat and humidity into the holiday week, but also hits on the need to include daily storm chances in our extended forecast, as…

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VIDEO: Storm Chances Return; Big Heat Looms…

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Checking In: No Changes To Expected Significant 4th Of July Heat Wave…

As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.

A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather.  It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana.  With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave.  Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.

Take this period of heat seriously.  With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool.  Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).

With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances.  That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period.  Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels.  Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…

For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there.  Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington…  I am one that says “bring it on!”

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