Category: Independence Day

Winds Of Change On Our Doorstep…

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One frontal boundary has already slipped through the region, but another (stronger) cold front will blow through this afternoon and evening.  While a spotty shower is possible as this front blows through, rain won’t be widespread this evening.  The bigger deal will be the MUCH cooler and drier air that will invade the region tonight.  This will set up an ideal stretch of weather Thursday-Sunday and we really couldn’t ask for a better 4th!  In fact, a few outlying communities will likely repot upper 40s by Friday morning.  Combine plenty of sunshine with cooler than normal temperatures and low humidity and the stage is set for perfect outdoor conditions.  Warmth and humidity will build as we head into the new work week and rain chances will be included.  We’re watching Tuesday for a round of potential heavier rain and thunderstorms.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/02/winds-of-change-on-our-doorstep/

Tuesday Night Weather Rambles…

It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already.  Where is the summer going?!  I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week.  Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin!  🙂

If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall!  Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)?  Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…

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1.)  Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s.  That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s.  The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday.  Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!

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2.)  Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday.  By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds.  Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.

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3.)  Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.

Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future.  In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.

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4.)  Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set).  The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…

As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event).  Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.

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Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time.  Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one.  We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.

An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns.  Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…

Have a relaxing night and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/

Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet…

Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun.  Mon.               66/ 86 65/ 77 58/ 73 51/ 76 52/ 80 59/ 83 64/ 87  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet/

Storm Chances Remain Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Independence Day Sat.               70/ 83 72/ 88 72/ 85 63/ 78 59/ 74 51/ 77 54/ 82  Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/29/storm-chances-remain-before-we-turn-much-cooler/

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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Independence Day

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/28/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

Quick Friday Evening Video Update

Seems like a broken record, but more showers and thunderstorms dot the central Indiana landscape this evening and will continue over the weekend, though no all day rains are anticipated.  Additionally, we’re still tracking well below normal air for the all-important holiday weekend next week.  Details in a quick Friday evening video update below!

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/quick-friday-evening-video-update/

“Summery” Weekend, But Eyeing A Cool 4th!

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               65/ 85 69/ 82 69/ 85 71/ 87 72/ 85 63/ 81 54/ 75  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/summery-weekend-but-eyeing-a-cool-4th/

Nice Day Shaping Up!

Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed.               65/ 83 64/ 85 67/ 86 71/ 87 73/ 90 73/ 89 64/ 79  – –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/nice-day-shaping-up/

Overall Drier, But Rain Chances Remain…

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               65/ 83 61/ 83 63/ 85 68/ 86 69/ 88 71/ 89 71/ 90  Light –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/25/overall-drier-but-rain-chances-remain/

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week.  That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods.  This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far.  Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

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There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

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The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

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The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead.  Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3.  Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

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To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +.  The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

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