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Category: Independence Day
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/28/video-looking-at-the-longer-range/
Jun 28
NEW JMA Weeklies Shed Light On The Long Range…
Changes are brewing in the longer range and the latest JMA Weeklies illustrate this nicely.
Week 1
No changes are needed to the expected significant heat wave to open the month of July. Heat and humidity will reach excessive levels at times- heat indices of 100° to 110° at times. While isolated coverage of storms are possible a few of the days (primarily afternoon and evening variety), it’s a dry pattern, overall.
Week 2
The pattern is in a transitional period during this time frame as the upper ridge retrogrades west. While still warm, the hottest conditions will shift west under the upper ridge. The other take-away? An active northwest flow returns with an emerging “ring of fire” pattern.
Weeks 3-4
While perhaps a bit quick, the model reverses things entirely by the Weeks 3-4 time frame. There’s no denying we think the hottest period of the summer will be behind us by mid-July, and while this type pattern shown below is where we think the dominant overall pattern is heading for the second half of summer, the model may be a bit aggressive here. Regardless, the Weeks 3-4 time frame are expected to not only reverse, but turn cooler than average over the Great Lakes region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/28/new-jma-weeklies-shed-light-on-the-long-range/
Jun 26
VIDEO: Heat And Humidity Build This Weekend, Can’t Rule Out Storms Either…
This evening’s video update discusses the building heat and humidity into the holiday week, but also hits on the need to include daily storm chances in our extended forecast, as…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/26/video-heat-and-humidity-build-this-weekend-cant-rule-out-storms-either/
Jun 25
VIDEO: Storm Chances Return; Big Heat Looms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/25/video-storm-chances-return-big-heat-looms/
Jun 24
Checking In: No Changes To Expected Significant 4th Of July Heat Wave…
As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/checking-in-no-changes-to-expected-significant-4th-of-july-heat-wave/
Jun 24
VIDEO: Gorgeous Second Half Of The Weekend; Storm Chances Return…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/video-gorgeous-second-half-of-the-weekend-storm-chances-return/
Jun 23
Another Active Week Ahead…
Saturday will feature unseasonably refreshing conditions as we’ll remain under the influence of an area of low pressure tracking off to our northeast. Look for considerable cloudiness today along with highs around 10° below average. Enjoy it as significant heat looms late next week.
Sunshine will increase for the second half of the weekend and highs will respond- mid 80s after a refreshing start Sunday morning.
High pressure will briefly build in and control our weather through the early part of the new week. An attempt of a thunderstorm complex to impact central Indiana Monday should be thwarted by a drier air mass in place. That said, moisture will increase Tuesday and beyond and a more active regime will return. Multiple thunderstorm complexes (some heavy) will rumble across the Ohio Valley and Mid West Tuesday through Thursday.
While it’ll certainly turn more humid through midweek, the rain and storms will keep temperatures at seasonable levels. All of that changes once to Thursday and Friday as a building ridge of high pressure expands across the Ohio Valley.
This will limit rain chances and potentially offer up the hottest air of the summer. We expect 5-6 days of low-mid 90s for highs and oppressive overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.
Thankfully, the hot dome will retrograde west and lead to “less hot” and increasingly stormy conditions after the first week of July. An active northwest flow pattern will take hold and provide an active time of things during this period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/23/another-active-week-ahead/
Jun 21
Early July Heat Wave?
While cooler and wetter conditions dominate now, thoughts are shifting ahead to the all-important 4th of July time period.
Models are in relative agreement that a sprawling upper level ridge will park itself over the Ohio Valley, leading to a higher than normal confidence for a medium to longer term forecast period.
The end result would be anomalous heat and a drier pattern, as a whole, as we transition through the early stages of July. Heat to the magnitude of what we experienced last weekend isn’t off the table with such a similar pattern.
Looking ahead, thankfully, one of our more trusted longer range computer models (JMA Weeklies), shows the pattern relaxing as we move into mid-July. The model shows the heat backing west and a more active northwest flow (wetter pattern) returning here…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/21/early-july-heat-wave/
Jul 03
Monday Morning Rambles…
An early look at the radar this morning shows a couple of lone storms near Decatur and Blufton. These are moving off to the east.
While we’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered thunderstorm today and Independence Day, the majority of both days will remain rain-free.
A wave of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday and this will result in an uptick in storm coverage. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. While some localized totals could be higher, we think widespread rains of 1″-1.5″ is a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will build in over the weekend and aid in a drier and cooler theme.
Lows will return to the 50s across central Indiana Sunday morning and refreshing (upper 50s at night and upper 70s to lower 80s during the day) air will remain with us into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/03/monday-morning-rambles-4/
Jul 01
Mainly Dry Weekend; Stormy Weather Returns Next Week…
Highlights:
- Mostly dry this weekend
- Unsettled next week
- Locally heavy rain
Classic Summertime Weather…While we’ll deal with some clouds from time to time today, most of the region will remain rain-free. Best chances of seeing a passing shower will be across the southern half of the state. Sunday will feature partly cloudy and seasonable conditions. It’ll be a great day to be outdoors!
Unsettled conditions will return next week, including Independence Day. Storm coverage will be most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours in this “rinse and repeat” pattern through late week. That said, each day will offer up many more dry hours than stormy. Just have a “plan B” in mind when those passing storms arrive.
Looking ahead, we may inject a drier and slightly cooler regime next weekend…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/01/mainly-dry-weekend-stormy-weather-returns-next-week/