Jan 03
Updated 01.03.24 @ 7:03a After a quiet start to the year, a much busier weather pattern is set to take foot over the span of the upcoming weekend, continuing throughout…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/03/video-blocking-matures-and-forces-stormy-pattern-underneath/
Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p
We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.
It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?
While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.
Details to follow in the week ahead!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/
Dec 31
Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a
The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.
The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:
Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.
After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.
The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.
Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/
Dec 09
Updated 12.09.23 @ 10:51a We’re tracking a narrow line of showers and embedded thunder this morning. This is in association with a cold front that will pass through central IN…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/09/video-evolving-active-pattern-into-mid-and-late-december/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 8:32p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/long-range-update-interesting-times/
Nov 03
Updated 11.03.23 @ 6:34a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/03/video-the-roller-coaster-ride-of-autumn-checking-in-on-the-new-european-weeklies/
Oct 09
Updated 10.09.23 @ 7:35a
We’re opening the work week with a few scattered clouds and temperatures around the 40° mark. We’re in a pattern that will feature predominantly cooler to colder than normal temperatures over the next 10-14 days with a couple exceptions. We’ll call it a sea of cool with an island of warmth (Thursday and Friday). The relatively warmer temperatures come after the passage of a warm front and ahead of a cold front. The “in between” will feature another period of unsettled and stormy weather to close the work week.
The overall upper air pattern shows that Hudson Bay blocking high and tendency for an eastern trough through the upcoming 2 week period. Another big cold shot will roll in here over the weekend and into the early Week 2 time period.
After a dry start to the week, rain chances will return late Wednesday and early Thursday (warm front) and again directly ahead of the cold front that will sweep through here Friday evening. Rainfall numbers with the passage of this system should check in between 0.25” and 0.75” for most of the region.
As we look ahead, a continued chilly pattern seems to be in store with additional storm dates that include:
10/19-10/20
10/23-10/24
Down the road, the strongly positive PNA and neutral to negative EPO should keep the chill flowing for the most part over the coming couple weeks. Eventually, these progressively colder shots will likely generate the 1st eastern flakes of the season, including for our friends in the beautiful high ground of those east TN and western NC mountains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/09/active-mid-and-late-october-another-unseasonably-cold-shot-on-deck/
Mar 07
Updated 03.07.23 @ 6:05p
The highly advertised pattern shift is upon us. The downright balmy February and open to March will reverse in significant fashion in the coming days and weeks, and an active storm track is expected to accompany the chillier times.
Of course, this time of year, that doesn’t mean the active pattern will yield snow and winter storms. Ironically, this year, Mother Nature looks to be saving the best opportunity though of cashing in on wintry “fun and games” for the 1st month of meteorological spring- yes, in the face of the challenges that higher March sun angle presents. It’s important to note you need heavy precipitation rates and/ or wintry precipitation falling at night to get any sort of significant accumulation. At the very least, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) sure will make for frustrating times for those longing for true “stick and hold” spring.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will amplify right into the textbook cold phases over the next couple of weeks.
The composite March analogs for phases 8 and 1 show the trough taking up residence across our part of the country, including the increased likelihood of high latitude blocking. That blocking is important as it will not only serve to “bog the pattern down,” (meaning 1 or 2 storms should try and deepen as they roll towards the East Coast, as opposed to the energy flying by so quickly things can’t phase). The blocking also can be attributed to more of a persistent nature of below normal chill (obviously not in terms of “absolute” temperatures) compared to what we’ve really seen all winter.
Ensemble guidance shows this plan coming together nicely:
As the high latitude blocking becomes established, forecast models will likely have to correct south a bit with the ‘mean’ storm track (compared to what is shown today). While I still don’t anticipate this doing much, if anything, with Friday’s system across immediate central Indiana, this does make for more interesting times early next week.
Today’s 12z European provides the most likely picture of what I feel will take place with the system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The reason for such is that the upper level pattern should promote a healthier system (more organized than what the GFS shows) that bowls under the block and puts the Ohio Valley, eventually into the eastern chunk of the country (Mid Atlantic and Northeast) in play for snow and/ or a wintry mix. Once we get closer, I envision a system that may resemble what we’re looking at Thursday into Friday morning, just further south, thanks to the block becoming more established.
There will likely be additional storm systems that pose a similar wintry threat beyond this system as we look towards closing out March.
Looking back over the years, a return of winter is almost a given around these parts as March Madness looms, so I guess we shouldn’t be surprised…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/07/and-so-it-begins/
Feb 27
Updated 02.27.23 @ 6:15p
Temperatures are running around 7° above normal at IND February to-date, and the first few days of March will also get off to a well above normal start. Winter, as a whole, aside from the bitter pre-Christmas blast, has been absolutely forgettable to most winter weather enthusiasts. I suppose it only makes sense that just as most are ready for “stick and hold” spring weather to show itself, we are seeing the best alignment and most bullish signal for persistent anomalous cold from a variety of pattern drivers all winter long. 😉
Long time IndyWx viewers know that this is the time of year we lean heaviest of NAO impacts, particularly if in a negative state. Latest long range data places the NAO in a negative state for the better part of the upcoming (6) weeks:
This strongly argues for more of a persistent eastern trough, including below normal temperatures and an active storm track, thanks to the busy Pacific pattern.
Secondly, and we really should have started with this one, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is finally set to rotate into the traditionally cold phases (8 and then 1) as we flip the page to the 2nd week of March and beyond. This should eventually translate into a widespread cold pattern, including the East, with an active coast-to-coast storm track continuing. Also note the high latitude blocking emerging as we transition into Phase 1.
Throw in a negative WPO, and this further backs up the widespread cold, active pattern. Similar to the NAO chart to open this piece, the majority of the (6) week period is spent in a negative state. Pattern alignment…
Add in all of this and there’s no wonder the most updated (as of this afternoon) European Weeklies are banging the drum, quite loudly I might add, for a prolonged period of colder than normal weather from mid-March through mid-April. Don’t put away that cold weather gear- or snow shovels just yet…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/27/spring-tease-just-that-long-long-road-ahead/
Dec 16
Updated 12.16.22 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/16/lr-update-into-mid-january-short-term-focuses-on-accumulating-snow-prospects-next-week/