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Category: High-latitude Blocking
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/
Nov 15
Waking Up To An Ice Storm And Looking At The Rest Of The Month…
I. A mixture of sleet and freezing rain transitioned mostly to freezing rain during the overnight and many across central Indiana are waking up to a significant “glaze” this morning (.2″ to .3″). Power outages are growing and travel is tricky in spots. If you don’t have to travel, please remain indoors.
An Ice Storm Warning remains in place until 12p, followed by a Winter Weather Advisory until 7p.
After a “lull” in the precipitation, a burst of light snow will develop this afternoon into the early evening hours before dry conditions return tonight.
II. As we look ahead, our next weather system will scoot into the region over the weekend. This will be a weak event and we only expect a light mixture of snow and rain Saturday evening.
III. The balance of Thanksgiving week looks rather quiet, but chilly, thanks to high pressure. The stretch of below to well below normal temperatures will continue, overall.
IV. As we look ahead, the pattern sure looks cold and stormy as we open December. On that note, the majority of data continues to trend colder for the month of December, as a whole, and with high latitude blocking in place, we’d expect to see an active storm track across the country. If you like it cold and active for the holidays, you just might be in luck this year… More on that later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/waking-up-to-an-ice-storm-and-looking-at-the-rest-of-the-month/
Nov 14
First Winter Storm System Of The Season…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/first-winter-storm-system-of-the-season/
Oct 19
Chill Forecast To Dominate As We Close October & Open November…
When we look forward to the overall pattern as we wrap up October and open November, we see good general agreement between the GEFS and EPS in a “blocky” look, including an eastern trough. This is a stormy signal.
European ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
GFS ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com
There will be an attempt at a significant eastern storm around Halloween- give or take a few days. The specifics associated with this storm are difficult (at best) to pin point from this distance. When thinking ahead towards Halloween, keep the potential of wet conditions, strong winds, and chilly temperatures at the forefront. Stay tuned.
What’s much more clear is that the pattern will continue to promote a colder than average feel during the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/chill-forecast-to-dominate-as-we-close-october-open-november/
Mar 06
Weekend Mischief…
The block continues to do it’s dirty work. An active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future and models will struggle handling the all-important specifics until a couple days before the event(s)- if not the day of.
The first few days of March have gotten off to a warmer than average start, but the coming 5-10 days will run colder than average across a large portion of our region.
Perhaps of more importance, and a greater focus, locally, is the potential one of these storms will slow down and intensify into something more significant than a 12-24 hour period of snow showers and squalls. The first contender arrives over the upcoming weekend, but with this being 4-5 days out, confidence remains low.
We note the latest GFS continues to “string out” the energy. The end result would be the potential of some mixed rain and snow showers late weekend into early in the work week, but nothing much more than that.
However, it’s important to understand model biases from this distance. So often, the GFS can rush things along in the medium range, only to later correct as time draws closer. If things slow, the associated energy will merge and result in the possibility of a significant, if not major, late-winter storm for portions of the Ohio Valley. As it is, a few of the GEFS ensemble members show this potential.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to be more specific from this distance. It’s easy to see both arguments (for and against a more significant storm) from this point, but with high latitude blocking in place (an ingredient missing most of the time from this winter, and several of the past few winters), we most certainly need to keep close tabs on subsequent model runs. Long-time Hoosiers remember when storms of significance actually did, indeed, impact the area. 🙂
It won’t take much in this pattern for things to slow down enough for a non event to become a big event…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-mischief/