Category: Heavy Snow

Something Doesn’t Jive…

I want to give a couple examples of significant conflicting signals- both short and long-term. The end result is a situation where long range, climate, and seasonal models are likely to have a very tough time not only in the medium to long range (2-4 week period), but thinking seasonally, as well (winter and next spring).

Short-term

To start, let’s look at the EPO. While strongly positive at present, both the EPS and GEFS pictured below take the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, negative in the coming couple of weeks.

A negative EPO pattern favors a trough across the eastern portion of the country, especially here in our neck of the woods, with western ridging.

All well and good, right? WRONG. The MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is forecast to stall out into early October in Phase 1.

This time of year, Phase 1 argues strongly for eastern ridging and well above normal warmth while the western portion of the country can experience early wintry conditions.

Talk about contradiction! That’s what makes weather so fun and fascinating. Expect to be humbled often and to always learn! At various times of the year, select teleconnections can mean a lot more than other times of the year. For example, during the summer and fall, we lean heavily on the EPO, PNA, and MJO (if amplified). During the winter and spring, it’s important to take into account what the AO and NAO have to say. It’s important to know when to “pick and choose” when to use particular teleconnections… Furthermore, the various MJO phases (1-8) mean drastically different things at different times of the year. While lovers of chilly fall conditions have grown to hate an amplified Phase 1, they have to love it come winter (shown below). Just look at that difference!

Before jumping ahead to another example of “contradicting signals,” we’re confident the amplified MJO Phase 1 will carry the day through the short to medium range period. Note the strong agreement between the EPS and GEFS below with respect to temperature anomalies in the 6-10 day period.

With that said, there will be challenges within (the big difference as early as this weekend between the GFS and European operational data). A lot of that has to do with the “fight” between the EPO and MJO to take control.

As all of this unfolds across the East, the west will begin to cash in on early winter. Well below average cold and snowy conditions will begin to make headlines over the weekend into next week across not only the Rockies, but some of the low ground, as well. Should the MJO swing into Phase 2 (and I think it will towards mid-Oct), then watch out. We’ll be looking at a rather significant shift towards a much colder feel- and it’ll sting even more so with the late season heat over the better part of the next couple of weeks.

Flipping the page to winter (remember, our prelim. winter outlook will be posted later this week) and the contradiction continues. Upon looking at the current SST configuration, one could easily argue we’re talking about a La Nina winter unfolding ahead.

Meanwhile, the current SOI would suggest we’re in a moderate El Nino.

If you think this can’t wreck havoc even on the short-term forecast pattern, think again…

To close, while the conflicting data can create headaches at times, it’s more fascinating than ever trying to sift through the data and build our forecast(s). It’d be wise to expect more wild swings ahead- leave it to us to try and minimize the impacts of those swings in your day-to-day personal and professional lives. Accordingly, it’s also ultra-important to factor in additional items, such as solar and PDO into the equation for the upcoming winter.

Speaking of, without giving too much away, if I’m a winter weather fan (and I am), I wouldn’t worry in the least about the current warmth… 😉

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/23/something-doesnt-jive/

Enjoy The Spring Warmth While We’ve Got It: Cold, Stormy Pattern On Deck…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/05/enjoy-the-spring-warmth-while-weve-got-it-cold-stormy-pattern-on-deck/

VIDEO: Period Of Wet Heavy Snow This Evening; Looking Ahead To Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/30/video-period-of-wet-heavy-snow-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-next-week/

Heavy Rain Ends As Snow This Evening…

A wet day is in store for central Indiana as a wave of low pressure moves along a stalled frontal boundary this afternoon. Once that low scoots by, the front will get a shove to the southeast and much drier weather will return as we go through the 2nd half of the weekend. The transition in between will be a combination of heavy rain eventually ending as wet snow this evening. Let’s time things out:

This morning’s initial wave of steady rain is now pushing into Ohio (as we write this just before 9a). Scattered showers are left behind.

That said, another wave of steady and, at times, heavy rain will return early this afternoon. A couple of thunderstorms are possible across southern Indiana.

Precipitation coverage will be widespread from noon until around 8p, including additional rainfall amounts over 1″ in many spots across central Indiana. Localized ponding and low-land flooding will be a good bet this afternoon into the evening hours.

As the area of low pressure scoots to our east, it’ll help pull the cold front south through central Indiana during the mid to late evening hours. Accordingly, rain will transition to a period of wet snow between 6p and 8p across central Indiana. More specific to Indianapolis, we think rain will switch to snow around 7p.

While snow won’t last a long time and temperatures will be above freezing as the snow is falling, briefly heavy intensity will likely result in a quick wet coating to around an inch in spots from central parts of the state, including east-central Indiana.

All precipitation will exit the state before midnight. While we could have a couple of scattered snow showers early Sunday morning, most of the day will be dry with increasing amounts of sunshine as the day progresses. It’ll be much colder with highs not making it out of the 30s.

Improving weather conditions will build in here through the early parts of the work week, along with moderating temperatures, thanks to high pressure. – Much more on the week ahead and longer range later today with our PM video update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/30/heavy-rain-ends-as-snow-this-evening/

Bitter Cold Gives Way To Another Accumulating Snow Event; Weekend Storms?

It’s a frigid start to the day, especially by March standards. With a fresh snow cover down, many reporting sites are now approaching zero. Officially, Indianapolis is down to 4 (F) as of this update at the 7a hour. For the most part, dry conditions will prevail today, but we could notice a couple of very light snow showers/ flurries at times this morning.

An upper level disturbance will pass through here Tuesday and again could be enough to ignite light snow showers.

The primary story through midweek is the cold as highs don’t make it above freezing until Friday afternoon. With the increasingly high and more powerful March sun angle, that’s another impressive feat.

Attention will shift to the threat of a stripe of accumulating snow Thursday evening into Friday.

As this upper level wave scoots southeast out of the central Plains and across the Ohio Valley, a band of accumulating snow will occur to the north and northeast of the track. As things stand now, we expect snow to build in here Thursday evening, continuing into Friday. While we still have time to watch things unfold, this is the kind of system that could deposit a few/ several inches of wet snow. Stay tuned.

Just as soon as we get rid of our late week snow maker, a new storm system will approach this weekend with the threat of heavier rain and embedded thunder late Saturday into early Sunday.

Rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.25″ are possible with our weekend system before precipitation ends as wet snow showers/ flurries next Sunday.

We’ll have an updated video discussion this evening looking more in-depth at the long range pattern… Make it a great Monday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/04/bitter-cold-gives-way-to-another-accumulating-snow-event-weekend-storms/

Wednesday Evening Video Update On The Upcoming Weekend Winter Storm…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/27/wednesday-evening-video-update-on-the-upcoming-weekend-winter-storm/

Evening Video Update: Snow, Storms, And A Major Pattern Shift On The Horizon…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/evening-video-update-snow-storms-and-a-major-pattern-shift-on-the-horizon/

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/

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