Category: Heavy Snow

Feb 24

Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow and wind

When: Wednesday into Thursday morning

Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night

Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required

There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.

As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.

One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/24/client-brief-threat-of-impactful-wintry-event-increasing-as-southeast-shift-continues/

Feb 12

VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Tonight-Thursday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/12/video-short-term-update-on-tonight-thursday/

Feb 12

VIDEO: Heavy Snow Builds In This Afternoon; Arctic Front Hits Tomorrow…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/12/video-heavy-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-arctic-front-hits-tomorrow/

Feb 11

Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley through the 2nd half of the work week.

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening

Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.

Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).

A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/11/client-brief-time-to-gas-up-the-snow-plows/

Feb 11

VIDEO: Winter Storm Inbound For The Ohio Valley Wednesday Into Thursday; Shot Of Arctic Air Follows…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/11/video-winter-storm-inbound-for-the-ohio-valley-wednesday-into-thursday-shot-of-arctic-air-follows/

Feb 10

Evening Review Of Data; Early Idea Of Heaviest Snow Axis Wednesday-Thursday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/10/evening-review-of-data-early-idea-of-heaviest-snow-axis-wednesday-thursday/

Feb 09

Burst Of Snow This Afternoon; Storms And “Rumors” Of Storms This Upcoming Week…

The day is starting off on a cold note with some fog and low clouds around, but at least we’re dry (for now). That will begin to change here in a few hours as a burst of snow moves into the city around lunchtime. A brief period of moderate to heavy snow may whiten the ground just north of the city before a transition to a cold rain for the better part of the afternoon.

Further north, cold air will hang on longer and a more significant period of snow is expected through the afternoon and early evening. In fact, periods of heavy snow can be expected, including snowfall rates up to 1″ per hour at times. If you have travel plans to places such as Ft. Wayne, South Bend, or Logansport, we’d recommend preparing for slick travel and snow covered roads can be expected. This will be a wet and heavy snow. Pavement impacts will require salting and plowing across the northern 1/3 of the state this afternoon into the evening.

Here’s our snowfall forecast today:

The attention will then shift to a period of moderate to heavy rain through the evening and into the overnight across the I-70 corridor. By the time all is said and done Monday morning, widespread 1″ to 1.5″ is expected with the passage of this storm system. Good news? Most of the rain should be south of our area by the morning rush Monday.

High pressure will then settle into the Ohio Valley as we move into Monday evening and Tuesday, allowing a briefly quieter period of weather to arrive on the scene.

By this time, however, all eyes will shift to the southwest and our next storm system that should be brewing. While models differ on the specifics with this storm, the overall upper pattern suggests we need to remain on our toes with respect for the potential of additional winter weather stretching from the mid-MS Valley Wednesday, Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, and interior Northeast Thursday into Thursday night. A brief, but potent shot of arctic air would follow to close the work week- especially if we can get some snow down.

Should snow get laid down with this system across the OHV region, a cold arctic high would be capable of sending temperatures into the single digits to close the work week.

Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/09/burst-of-snow-this-afternoon-storms-and-rumors-of-storms-this-upcoming-week/

Dec 16

Client Brief: Heavy Snow Bands Return Into The Overnight…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

This evening’s mesoscale analysis reflects a blossoming area of snow across MO into IL that will move east across central Indiana during the overnight.

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: This evening into Tuesday morning

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the middle 20s Tuesday morning

Wind: Northeast shifting to the northwest Tuesday morning

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Our ongoing snowfall forecast from last night remains unchanged. Please note these are storm total snowfall amounts by Tuesday morning.

“Round 2″ is underway and we actually believe the overall snow shield will become more expansive with time through the late evening and overnight hours. Within this growing snow shield, embedded banding is expected that will include moderate to heavy snowfall rates. This continues to look like an I-70 special with respect to heaviest totals (7″ to 11″ range for storm totals). On either side of that heaviest snow zone, 4″ to 7” can be expected. On the north side, this is due to lighter intensity of snow (both with Part 1 and Part 2) and mixing issues on the south side.

Snow will exit the city just before daybreak, and southeast Indiana between 8a and 9a. Winds will shift to the northwest and an overall colder day is expected Tuesday, but at least we won’t have to worry about additional snow once past daybreak.

Cold air reinforcements will blow into town Wednesday with a couple snow showers across east-central Indiana. The bigger deal will be the cold, including temperatures that will remain stuck in the middle 20s through the daytime hours. Add in a stiff breeze and wind chill values will be in the 10s.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/16/client-brief-heavy-snow-bands-return-into-the-overnight/

Dec 16

VIDEO: Heavy Snow Returns This Afternoon; Intense Banding Expected…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/16/video-heavy-snow-returns-this-afternoon-intense-banding-expected/

Dec 15

Time For The Heavy Equipment: Localized Storm Totals Approach One Foot By The Time All Is Said And Done…

High resolution guidance started to show the snowier solutions earlier this evening and that trend has continued this evening. The consistency is great to see, but we also notice a couple of interesting elements “upstream” that will likely ultimately end up producing a memorable mid-December snow storm across central Indiana by the time all is said and done.

Before we talk specifics, here’s our updated snowfall forecast. Please note, this is expected total snowfall by daybreak Tuesday morning. We wouldn’t be shocked to hear of localized one foot amounts along the I-70 corridor.

Periods of heavy snow will come to an end during the overnight. We think by 3a to 4a, most of the snow from “round 1″ will be to our east and we’ll be left with clean up duties before a Monday morning rush that will likely still be heavily impacted. By the time the 1st round is finished, most of the I-70 corridor will be shoveling and plowing away 4″ to 6” of wet snow.

We’ll then get into the expected lull in the action through a good chunk of the daytime Monday. That said, curious eyes will be focused in on south-central MO mid-to-late morning as precipitation blossoms in response to a strengthening surface wave that will move northeast out of the Ark-la-tex and into the TN Valley tomorrow night.

Precipitation will expand in coverage and intensity yet again tomorrow morning to our southwest.

This will promote an expanding shield of moderate to heavy precipitation moving northeast and overspreading central Indiana by mid afternoon Monday. For us here across central Indiana, this will fall as snow.

Heavy snow will return to the I-70 corridor Monday afternoon.

If you don’t have to travel tomorrow, we’d recommend staying home and off the roads. While conditions will improve late morning into early afternoon, travel conditions will go downhill in significant fashion by 3p to 4p Monday across central Indiana- including the metro.

Periods of snow, heavy at times, will continue into the overnight before pushing off to the east before sunrise Tuesday. By that time, the heart of central Indiana will be cleaning up from a double digit and most memorable mid-December snow storm.

Periods of snow will continue into the overnight Monday.

We’ll be left with colder, but generally dry conditions Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below freezing through the day, but the majority of the region won’t be dealing with any additional snowfall after sunrise…

Gas up that snowblower! Next update will come early in the AM.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/15/time-for-the-heavy-equipment-localized-storm-totals-approach-one-foot-by-the-time-all-is-said-and-done/

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