Aug 06
The video uncovers some of our latest thinking in terms of rainfall placement Friday. Additionally, we show you at least one forecast model that thinks rather gloomy conditions continue into…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/closer-look-at-fridays-rain-potential/
Aug 06
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Watching Storms To Our Northwest…Fog is locally dense in many communities across central Indiana this morning and it’ll take a couple hours to burn off. Plan for extra drive time on your way to work and school. Once the fog burns off we’ll look at mostly cloudy skies today along with the chance of showers this afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms is off to our northwest this morning and the general track will take this complex of showers and storms into our general area later this afternoon in a weakened form. Not everyone will get wet, but rain chances will be around this afternoon and evening.
Friday Battle…Forecast models continue to struggle with exact heavy rain placement Thursday night into Friday, mainly due to how they handle an area of high pressure to our north. Thinking here continues to suggest we’re under the gun for a rather rainy Friday, but must maintain this is a lower than normal confidence forecast. Central and southern Indiana appears most at risk for locally heavy rainfall, including some 2″ totals somewhere in the aforementioned region. Widespread 0.75″-1.25″ amounts remain a good bet.
Increasing Sunshine This Weekend…Sunshine will be welcome after a rather gloomy work week. We forecast high pressure to build in and supply partly cloudy and pleasant conditions this weekend before rain chances return early next week.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
We’ll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/mostly-cloudy-with-afternoon-shower-chance/
Aug 05
This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week. Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.
The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/
Aug 05
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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby. Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage). As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.
Best Rain Chances Friday? Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.
Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine. Perfect timing, heh?!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/turning-more-unsettled/
Aug 04
Good evening. Isolated storms have developed across central Indiana this evening and really have concentrated themselves across the greater Indianapolis area, itself. We discuss this and look deeper into your…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/monday-evening-video-update-3/
Aug 04
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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling. A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results. The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area. The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week). Finally, the GFS is in between the two. We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days. Stay tuned.
Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/mid-and-late-week-questions/
Aug 03
Severe clear can be used to sum up the start to our Sunday. High pressure is in control and will result in a sun-filled day with temperatures trying their best…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/03/sunday-morning-a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Aug 02
Happy Saturday! Upper level energy will hang around the region today, creating a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Friday, a few of these could be strong…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/02/saturday-morning-rambles-3/
Jul 25
Concern continues to grow in regards to a possible enhanced damaging wind threat with an evolving complex of storms Saturday night. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/25/enhanced-damaging-wind-threat-saturday-night/
Jul 25
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We’re keeping a close eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest (across Iowa and Minnesota) this morning as these will continue to drop southeast with time today. We know we’ll see clouds increase locally from this complex of storms and some of the latest short-term model data brings in light rain during the afternoon as the complex drops southeast into IL and IN- though in a much weaker state. We’ll include mention of an afternoon shower due to this.
As we move into the weekend concern remains around the possibility of multiple thunderstorm complexes impacting our area. The Storm Prediction Center includes us in a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday and Sunday, including the chance of some storms producing a damaging wind and hail threat. We target Saturday morning and again Saturday night and Sunday for the best chances of thunderstorm complexes. Saturday night/ Sunday morning may provide the greatest risk of severe storms, and we’ll continue to monitor. We also note high precipitable water values present this weekend suggesting the threat of some localized flooding where storms train. Widespread 1″ rainfall can be expected this weekend, but we do caution some areas will see locally heavier totals in excess of 2″.
A much cooler, drier and fall-like feel is still slated to blow into town early next week, setting the stage for an incredible close to July and open to August!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/25/stormy-weekend-before-another-push-of-autumn-weather/
