Category: Heavy Rain

Nov 18

Wet Today; Colder Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 7.15.50 AMHighlights:

  • Rain today
  • Breezy and turning cooler
  • Secondary push of early season arctic air

Our big autumn storm system is swirling through the central Plains this morning.  It’ll begin to pick up forward momentum and head northeast over the next 24 hours.

We’re dealing with an impressive fetch of moisture (w/ a Gulf of Mexico connection) this morning and that’ll help feed embedded heavy downpours this morning into the early afternoon.  Here’s a time stamp of forecast radar images, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

7aSimRadar

11aSimRadar

3pSimRadarAs mentioned above, with a GOM connection, embedded heavy rain will dampen your Wednesday activities.  On average, we’ll add an additional half inch to inch of rain today (that’s on top of what we saw Monday and Tuesday).

RaintotalsOnce to tomorrow all eyes will be on our next storm system that will eventually help pull down the season’s first blast of arctic air.  Ahead of the cold surge, expect light rain to end as light snow across central IN Saturday.  This won’t be a big deal from an accumulation perspective, but it’s always exciting seeing the first snow flakes of the season.  Further north, across our northern tier of counties, a couple inches of snow will be possible.

SatPMStormTrackWe’re also keeping a close eye on Thanksgiving’s weather.  While still a bit early to be specific, initial thoughts suggest we’re dealing with a storm on, or just on either side of Thanksgiving, that will provide rain to begin, but we caution that another surge of early season arctic air looks to pour in behind that storm system and potentially set the stage for a more impactful winter event to open December.  More on that in the days ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/18/wet-today-colder-air-coming/

Nov 17

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/

Nov 15

Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.55.18 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Clouds and rain return
  • Colder late week
  • Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November

Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning.  That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions.  Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.  With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.

Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening.  A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain.  It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not.  A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night.  When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains.  We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.

gfs_pwat_conus2_14Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week.  Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving.  With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…

The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.

KIND_2015111500_nxa_384

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/15/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/

Nov 14

Big, Wet Storm System Sitting On Deck…

Enjoy the weekend, my friends, as a big and wet storm system awaits on deck to impact early to mid week across the region.

November, so far, has followed suit of the past few months in a much drier than normal regime.  Over the past (7) days heaviest rains fell across SE portions of the state.  On the month so far, IND sits around 1″ below normal.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

That rainfall deficit may be eaten up over the course of a couple days as our next storm system rolls off the Rockies and into the Plains.  (Track sound familiar)?

Monday

Tuesday

WednesdayThe storm will tap into the Gulf of Mexico and include a deep southerly flow plenty capable of producing a heavy rain event across the region.  Note PWATs (precipitable water) nearly 300% of normal.PWAT

gfs_pwat_anom_conus2_18

We target Tuesday night-Wednesday as the focal point for heaviest rain potential and model data remains firm on general consensus of 2″-3″ falling with this next storm system, including locally heavier totals.

soflow

raintotalsAfter this next storm, attention will begin to shift towards a colder pattern setting up for late November, including Thanksgiving…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/14/big-wet-storm-system-sitting-on-deck/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 12

Looking Ahead Towards Our Next Storm…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/11/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Oct 27

Wet And Windy Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Please excuse the lighting in this video.  (Still trying to get the new office set up)! https://youtu.be/l15pHYwTq_I

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/27/wet-and-windy-before-we-turn-much-cooler/

Oct 26

Heavy Rain Then Colder…

Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door.  It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s.  Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.

This morning’s satellite picture:

image7When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west.  The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.

8a Tuesday Futurecast

8am

8p Tuesday Futurecast

8pOvernight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast

overnightLocally heavy rainfall can be expected.  When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.

Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning3The story after the big rain storm moves away?  A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country.  This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.

500mb

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/heavy-rain-then-colder/

Oct 23

Much Wetter; Cooler Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-10-23 at 7.13.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain moves in later today-Saturday
  • Cooler second half of the weekend
  • Heavy rain event next week

High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front later today and Saturday.  Showers will accompany the front and may spread into western IN as early as this evening before continuing to advance east tonight.  Most of the rain should fall through the first half of Saturday, but we’ll maintain a mention of showers up until the front passes Saturday night.

Cooler, drier air will move in Sunday and to open the new work week.  High pressure will supply a return of sunny, ideal fall conditions.

As we progress deeper into the week, another cold front will team up with moisture from the remnants of Patricia to provide a much needed soaking.  We forecast skies to cloud up Tuesday with rain developing by evening.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday before turning more “showery” in nature.  Much cooler air and blustery conditions can also be expected Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.75″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/23/much-wetter-cooler-pattern/

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