Category: Heavy Rain

May 02

Unseasonably Chilly; Another Heavy Rain Maker Blows Into Town…

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday morning and give way to an expanding rain shield late morning into the early afternoon hours.  Initially this rain won’t be heavy, but will begin to increase in overall coverage and intensity as we progress into the nighttime hours.

Forecast radar around lunchtime shows rain increasing across central IN.

Rain becomes heavy Wednesday night.

The culprit behind this new heavy rain maker is a deepening surface low pressure system that will slowly track from Arkansas (Wednesday night) northeast along the Ohio River (Thursday) and into Ohio (Friday).  Not only will this spread heavy rain across central Indiana, but will also result in strong and gusty easterly winds Thursday into Friday, and unseasonably cold air.  In fact, temperatures Friday will likely remain in the 40s across central IN with wind chills in the 30s.  Add in that wind-driven rain and we have the makings for an UGLY day.

Periods of heavy rain will fall on the region Wednesday night into Friday and by the time all is said and done (Saturday night) widespread rainfall of 3″ is likely across most of central Indiana.  Locally heavier totals will be possible where the most persistent heavy rain bands set-up shop.

We’ll begin to dry things out Saturday night into Sunday, but unseasonably chilly air will remain.  Lows over the weekend into early next week will grow cold enough to allow patchy frost to develop in outlying communities.  We think low to mid 30s will be common across the region Sunday and Monday mornings.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/02/unseasonably-chilly-another-heavy-rain-maker-blows-into-town/

May 01

Another Big Rain Maker; Unseasonably Chilly…

Highlights:

  • Limited sunshine
  • Another big rain event awaits
  • Prolonged period of chilly weather

Jackets And Rain Gear Needed…Without question, Tuesday appears to be the “pick of the week” across central Indiana as we get into some briefly drier air.  Enjoy it, as a new storm system will deliver heavy, wind-driven rain and unseasonably chilly air as we progress through mid and late week.

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday morning and give way to an expanding shield of rain as morning wears into afternoon and evening.  As the surface low tracks closer to the region, an increasingly strong and gusty easterly wind will develop and combine with the chilly rain to lead to a truly “raw” period of weather to close the work week.  It’ll feel more like early-March than early-May around these parts.  Unfortunately, it still appears as if this next storm will deliver hefty rainfall totals on our already water-logged landscape.  Data paints a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals with locally heavier amounts.  Flooding, once again, appears likely and if you live near a body of water, it’ll be important to keep a close eye on water levels Thursday into the weekend.

Widespread rain Friday should slowly give way to improving weather conditions over the weekend: scattered showers Saturday and dry, cool weather Sunday.  Speaking of cool, temperatures will continue to run well below average, and lows Saturday through Monday mornings’ may result in patchy frost in outlying areas…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/01/another-big-rain-maker-unseasonably-chilly/

Apr 30

Keeping A Close Eye On Midweek…

For the purpose of this post, we’ll focus on our next storm system that, at the very least, promises to deal more wet weather to central Indiana come Wednesday night into Friday.  Additionally, this will be a much cooler storm with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s during the day Thursday, as gusty easterly winds reach 30+ MPH.  At the extreme, this could be another event that deposits widespread 2″+ rainfall totals across central Indiana…

The latest 7-day precipitation anomaly off this afternoon’s GEFS shows the wet pattern that will remain intact over the upcoming (7) day period.

The individual GFS ensemble members are truly concerning, especially given just how wet we currently are.  We note some members suggest additional 3″-4″ totals- with over 50% of that coming from our midweek storm.

We’ll keep a close eye on model data over the next couple of days, but as of now, we suggest planning for additional hefty rain totals in the Wednesday night through Friday time frame.  Also of interest will be the extreme cool associated with this storm.  As previously mentioned, the majority of the day Thursday will be spent in the 40s (more like early-March than early-May).  Factor in a gusty easterly breeze and we’ll have the makings for a truly “raw” weather day across the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/30/keeping-a-close-eye-on-midweek/

Apr 30

More Heavy Rain And Storms Ahead; Cooler Week On Deck…

Highlights:

  • Widespread rain and strong storms today
  • Falling temperatures, windy, and wet Monday
  • Midweek storm brewing

Flooding Concerns Remain High…Another slug of moisture will lift north through central Indiana this afternoon into the nighttime hours.  Locally heavy rain will result in big flooding concerns as saturated soils are in place and many creeks and streams are already out of their banks.  Throw in an additional 1″-2″ with locally heavier totals and you have the makings of a dangerous flood situation into early week.  If that wasn’t enough to be concerned about, we’ll also have to watch how things evolve closely this afternoon for the potential of severe thunderstorms.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.

We’ll transition to a much cooler regime to open the new work week with gusty winds and showers continuing.  Temperatures will fall through the 50s during the day.  Jackets will be required!

Tuesday will provide a brief break from the wet weather and we should also introduce some sunshine for a while.  Unfortunately, we won’t have much time to dry out as a wet, windy, and chilly storm is brewing Wednesday evening into Thursday.  Widespread rain (some heavy) will combine with a raw easterly wind and temperatures in the 50s to lead to a rather miserable Thursday.

While shower chances remain early Friday, the theme heading into next weekend is a drier one and we should finally enjoy very pleasant weather by Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/30/more-heavy-rain-and-storms-ahead-cooler-week-on-deck/

Apr 29

Gearing Up For The “2nd Half…”

Central Indiana has enjoyed a well deserved break in the rain and thunderstorms this afternoon, but, unfortunately, stormy times will return tonight.  With an increasingly moist air mass in place (warm front is currently draped across central IN and slowly lifting north), renewed heavy rain is expected tonight into Sunday.  Dew points will approach 70° and precipitable water values (PWATs) will periodically reach 2″ between this evening and Sunday night.  With that kind of moisture content in the atmosphere, locally heavy, flash flood-producing, rains are a “lock.”  Should you live near a creek, stream, or river, please keep abreast of water levels into early next week and have a plan in place to move to higher ground.

The Storm Prediction Center paints a “Slight Risk” of severe weather across central and southern Indiana tonight.

We think an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms will blow into central Indiana later this evening (between 9p and midnight).  Some of these may reach strong to severe levels with damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.  Additionally, torrential downpours will occur within this line of storms.

Overall coverage of rain and thunderstorms should diminish Sunday morning before ramping up and increasing in overall coverage and intensity (yet again) Sunday evening and night.  In fact, we may be looking at another severe weather episode Sunday night- again with straight line damaging winds of greatest concern.  By the time all is said and done we expect an additional 1″-2″ of rain across central Indiana with locally heavier 3″+ amounts where storms train over the same area.  Obviously, with saturated soils in place across central Indiana, this amount of rain will create flood concerns into Monday morning.  By the time we get to Monday, the big weather story will be strong and gusty NW winds, much cooler air (falling temperatures through the 50s) and nuisance-level showers.

Another heavy rain maker looms Thursday and we’ll cover that in our updated 7-day later tonight or Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/29/gearing-up-for-the-2nd-half/

Apr 28

Wet And Stormy Times Through The Weekend; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

While it won’t rain the entire weekend, central Indiana should be prepared for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days.  For those with outdoor plans this weekend, unfortunately what we’re seeing this evening is only the beginning of stormy times ahead.  There will be periods of dry weather in between the waves of storms, but the big story will be the hefty rain totals come Monday morning and embedded severe storms to boot.

Moisture content continues to increase across central Indiana this evening.

Precipitable water values continue to increase this evening and will aid in locally heavy rainfall tonight and through the weekend.

Forecast radar shows the waves of moisture that will impact the region throughout the night.  We project most widespread heavy rain arrives on the scene Saturday morning.

Forecast radar 11p

Forecast radar 4a

Forecast radar 10a

While scattered strong to severe storms will remain in our forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday, we think the most widespread rains will diminish as we progress through the afternoon hours Saturday.  That said, with such high moisture content, any storms that develop will be plenty capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short timeframe.  It should also be mentioned that as the warm front lifts north, central Indiana will get into an increasingly warm and moist air mass Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  In fact, highs Sunday may approach the lower to middle 80s.  Add in a dew point that will approach 70°, a true muggy, summer-like feel will result.

Overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to, once again, increase Sunday evening into the overnight period.  Additional heavy rain is expected and with saturated soils in place, flash flooding may result.  If you live near a creek or stream, please pay attention to the water levels into early next week.

The Storm Prediction Center outlines the region for the potential of severe weather tonight through Sunday (don’t be surprised if the “Slight Risk” is pulled further north on Sunday in future updates from the SPC).

Once all is said and done, we anticipate widespread 2″-3″ rainfall totals through central Indiana, but also note there will be localized heavier amounts.  Once to Monday we’ll look at a much cooler, windy, and “showery” regime.  Look for falling temperatures through  the day Monday and this will set the stage for the week ahead: MUCH cooler, overall….  More on that later this weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/28/wet-and-stormy-times-through-the-weekend-much-cooler-next-week/

Apr 27

Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…

The new JMA Weeklies paint a wet and active picture for Week 1, but begin to suggest we get into a milder, drier pattern as we push into the middle and latter portions of May…

Week 1:

The “mean” upper air pattern places coastal ridges with a cool trough settling into the central.  The end result will be a wet and active regime, locally, this weekend into next week.  Though we’ll see a “spike” in temperatures Sunday, the overall theme is a chilly one as we open the month of May.  In fact, temperatures will trend significantly cooler than average as we push into next week.

Week 2:

While it still looks chilly (compared to average), the JMA Weeklies suggest a “calmer” weather pattern moving in.  Wet anomalies are noted through the Rockies and Central, but a drier trend across the east, including the Ohio Valley.

Weeks 3-4:

Wet times remain across the Central and spread into more of the southern tier, as well.  Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are also forecast across the Southeast.  Budding warmth seems to develop over the West.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/27/reviewing-the-latest-jma-weeklies/

Apr 27

Busy Weather Pattern…

Highlights:

  • AM showers then cooler and windy
  • Stormy weekend ahead
  • Cooler next week

Busy Times In The Weather Office…A cold front will sweep through the state this morning with lingering showers and an abrupt wind shift.  Gusty westerly winds and cooler air (we’ve already seen our high for the day) will be with us this afternoon, along with a variably cloudy sky.

Unfortunately, we don’t have many changes to the ongoing idea of hefty weekend rains.  A warm front will begin to slowly lift north Friday into Saturday and this will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Overall coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms will increase as we rumble through the second half of Friday.  A couple of storms could be strong to severe- especially across southern Indiana Friday afternoon and night.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north and be located across the southern Great Lakes region Sunday.  This will put our neck of the woods squarely into the warm and humid air mass Sunday.  Though storm coverage will likely be more scattered in nature when compared to Saturday, heavy thunderstorms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  With a deep-rooted tropical connection along with saturated soils in place from early weekend rains, flood and flash flood potential will be high as we go into early portions of next week.

As we open up the work week, we’ll shift gears from a moisture-rich southerly flow to one that’s out of the northwest and much cooler.  Showers will continue through Monday.  Our next storm system will then set it’s eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/27/busy-weather-pattern/

Apr 26

VIDEO: Stormy Wednesday Evening For Some; Weekend Flood Threat…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/26/video-stormy-wednesday-evening-for-some-weekend-flood-threat/

Apr 25

Dry Time Is Limited…

Highlights:

  • Unsettled times ahead
  • Weekend heavy rain
  • Much cooler and windy early next week

Enjoy The Dry Time While You Can…While most of Wednesday will remain rain-free, we do note the potential of a diminishing line of thunderstorms that could impact portions of far northwest sections of the state Wednesday morning.  As mentioned, these should diminish relatively quickly and give way to a mostly dry day.  A cold front will approach the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time.  Briefly drier air will arrive Thursday evening into Friday and we should wrap up the work week mainly dry.

We’ll take whatever dry weather we can get as the weekend still looks wet and stormy.  We discussed the weekend setup this morning and thoughts haven’t changed a bit.  Today’s model data continues to suggest we’re looking at periods of heavy rainfall with widespread weekend totals of 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts possible).  Of the two days, Saturday appears to offer up the most widespread rains, but we caution that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Sunday will have the potential of depositing hefty totals in relative short order.  Due to the projected steering currents, we’re also concerned for the possibility of “training” of heavy rain and that would quickly create a flash flood concern in localized areas.  Stay tuned.  Another item of interest is the possibility of “bust potential” with regard to the temperature forecast Saturday.  Latest modeling wants to keep the warm front just south of the immediate region for most of the day now and, as such, we’ve trended cooler with Saturday’s temperatures before that warm southwesterly air flow wins out Sunday.

The warmth won’t last long as we quickly transition to a cooler west and northwest regime to open the work week.  Along with the much cooler air, scattered showers and strong and gusty winds will be with us.  We’ll finally begin to calm down with a very pleasant Tuesday expected.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.00″ – 4.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/04/25/dry-time-is-limited/

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