Category: Heavy Rain

Oct 22

So Long Warm Autumn Weather; Colder Changes Ahead This Week…

Highlights:

  • Bye-bye unseasonably warm weather
  • Wet start to the work week
  • Colder times loom

Early Sunday Sun; Rain Increases In Coverage Tonight…The morning is off to a pleasant start, including unseasonably mild conditions and a SW breeze.  Clouds will thicken up this evening and a scattered shower will be possible.  Rain will increase in coverage and intensity tonight into Monday as an area of low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.  Steadiest rain will impact central Indiana Monday morning before diminishing to showers Monday afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will fall into the 50s Monday morning into the afternoon.

A bigger “jab” of chilly air will plunge into the region for midweek.  Considerable cloudiness will accompany the unseasonably chilly conditions, along with a gusty northwest breeze.

As we look ahead towards next weekend, another in a series of cold fronts (get used to that) will eye a Friday evening approach.  Showers will be possible as this front blows through the region.  Sharply colder air looms next weekend.  Frost and freeze conditions will likely develop early next week, along with the first flakes of the season…

The 2017-2018 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/22/so-long-warm-autumn-weather-colder-changes-ahead-this-week/

Oct 19

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Threat On The Table Early Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/19/video-heavy-rain-threat-on-the-table-early-next-week/

Sep 11

VIDEO: Hurricane Irma And Warmer Times Loom…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/11/video-hurricane-irma-and-warmer-times-loom/

Aug 31

VIDEO: Windy & Unseasonably Cool Close To The Work Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/31/video-windy-unseasonably-cool-close-to-the-work-week/

Aug 30

Pleasant Now; Very Cool, Wet (For Some), And Windy Close To The Week…

Highlights:

  • Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
  • Harvey’s remnants impact the region
  • Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day

Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather.  Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.  A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.

Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants.  The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds.  While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state.  Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely).  The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday.  Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready.

Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.

We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself.  Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday.  Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week.  Get set for an October-like feel…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.30″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/30/pleasant-now-very-cool-wet-for-some-and-windy-close-to-the-week/

Aug 28

Wet Start To The Work Week; Keeping A Close Eye On Harvey…

Highlights:

  • Wet open to the work week
  • Late week backdoor cold front
  • Where will Harvey’s remnants track?

More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months.  Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants.  It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.

Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley.  While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet.  Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems.  A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday.  A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast.  There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east.  We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley.  With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/28/wet-start-to-the-work-week-keeping-a-close-eye-on-harvey/

Aug 21

Chances Of Needed Rain Increasing For Central Indiana…

August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry.  Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.

We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana.  The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.

With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.

Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/21/chances-of-needed-rain-increasing-for-central-indiana/

Aug 04

Catching Up On A “Crisp” August Evening…

One sure would be hard-pressed to find an August evening that is more fall-like than today.  Heck, a check of temperatures even at the 3 o’clock hour across central IN revealed levels more typical of early October.  – Your’s truly isn’t complaining. 😉  As I write this post just before 10p Friday evening, I’m fireside with a temperature in the upper 50s in Whitestown.  Call me crazy, but I’ll take it- even if it is a couple months early!

All across the Midwest temperatures are running 10° to 15° below normal at the 9p hour.

As we look ahead, Saturday is certainly the pick of the weekend.  Mixed clouds and sun will be with us for the balance of the day before we turn increasingly overcast late.  While temperatures will remain significantly below normal, it’ll be a very refreshing day and feel more like early-September (mid-upper 70s).

As mentioned, clouds will increase, lower, and thicken Saturday evening and widespread rain will follow.  This is all in association with our next approaching storm system that promises to result in a rather damp and unseasonably cool second half of the weekend.  Forecast radar timestamps Sunday morning into the afternoon show the overall widespread coverage of rain showers and embedded thunder.  We suggest indoor weekend plans Sunday.

Unsettled weather will continue into early Monday across the state.  By the time all is said and done, rainfall totals of 1″-1.5″ can be expected, including locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms develop.  Additionally, with the clouds and wet weather Sunday, temperatures will likely remain in the 60s most of the day.

As we push into the new work week, drier air will regain control of our region and high pressure should provide a stretch of pleasant (unseasonably cool) conditions through midweek.

Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the second half of next week as our next storm system approaches.  While we’ll moderate back to seasonal levels late-week, data suggests another blast of refreshing air will blow into town next weekend.  It’s far too early to signal “summer over,” but the early blasts of fall-like air do have to “raise an eyebrow” for what autumn may provide the region.  We’re in the camp of believing central IN is in position for earlier than normal frost risks…  Much more on that later.

Reinforcing cool air establishes itself in the 8-10 day period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/04/catching-up-on-a-crisp-august-evening/

Jul 26

VIDEO: Locally Heavy Rain Thursday; Unseasonably Cool & Refreshing Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/26/video-locally-heavy-rain-thursday-unseasonably-cool-refreshing-weekend/

Jul 26

Heavy Rain And Storms Thursday; Phenomenal Weekend Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Turning more humid this afternoon
  • Heavy rain Thursday
  • Cooler and drier weekend ahead

Heavy Rain Tomorrow…Wednesday is getting off to a pleasant and beautiful start across the Hoosier state.  Sunshine will be with us throughout the day, but our pleasant air mass that we’re awaking to will grow increasingly moist this afternoon and evening.  Our next storm system approaches late tonight and will help push widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state early Thursday morning.  With such high water content in our air mass, expect periods of heavy rain across the region.  Localized flooding will result.

The trade off to the wet and stormy Thursday will be an incredible weekend.  Despite a few lingering showers Friday, we’ll notice a dramatic drop in humidity Friday night and this will set the stage for a refreshing last weekend of July.  In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough both Saturday and Sunday mornings to perhaps trigger a feel of early autumn for some.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected along with unseasonably low dew points with a northeasterly flow in place.

Temperatures and moisture levels will slowly increase as we get into early next week.  With the increasing humidity, expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/26/heavy-rain-and-storms-thursday-phenomenal-weekend-ahead/

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