Category: Heavy Rain

Mar 07

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.07.21 @ 8:48a

I. Unseasonably mild open to the week

II. Heavy rain/ potential flooding threat looms late week across OHV

Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Only exception to this will be across the West and far Southeast.
Above normal precipitation will target the MO Valley and into the western OHV.
We expect between 1″ and 2″ for most of IN in the week ahead.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.

Forecast period: 03.07.21 through 03.14.21

While our weather will remain “eerily quiet” to open this forecast period, significant changes await on deck by the 2nd half of the week. These changes will be ushered in from a cold front that will lead to increasing shower (maybe even embedded t-storm) chances Thursday before rain becomes widespread Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and European computer models begin to disagree on the evolution of things next weekend. The GFS stalls the front just to our south before a surface wave of low pressure rides along the boundary over the Saturday-Sunday period. Meanwhile, the European shoves the front off to the south in a quicker fashion, allowing for a drier weekend. We’ll need to keep a close eye on things and update in the days ahead. Should the GFS idea be correct, a flood threat would ensue, including weekend rainfall totals of several inches. We’re not ready to jump on the excessive rainfall idea yet, due to the differences in the handling of the frontal boundary/ associated surface wave, but will keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/03/07/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-22/

Feb 27

VIDEO: Analyzing Latest Short-Term Heavy Rain Trends; Guidance Trends Colder For The Eastern Seaboard Days 5-10…

Updated 02.27.21 @ 10:15a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/27/video-analyzing-latest-short-term-heavy-rain-trends-guidance-trends-colder-for-the-eastern-seaboard-days-5-10/

Feb 27

Heavy Rain Axis Shifts North…

Updated 02.27.21 @ 3a

While we’re dealing with areas of light rain early this morning, most of our Saturday will be precipitation-free. That will all begin to chance during the overnight and predawn hours Sunday. Computer model guidance has begun to trend north with the heavy rain axis during this time frame. Southern portions of the state will still get in on the heavy rain show, but it now appears as if there will be a window for heavy rain across more of central Indiana in the 2a-9a window Sunday.

Forecast radar 5a Sunday
Rainfall totals through noon Sunday.

More later this morning in our video update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/27/heavy-rain-axis-shifts-north/

Feb 26

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Train Sets Up Along The KY/ IN Border This Weekend…

Updated 02.26.21 @ 7:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/26/video-heavy-rain-train-sets-up-along-the-ky-in-border-this-weekend/

Dec 10

VIDEO: Pattern Evolution Into Early-January; Wintry Mischief On Deck Early Next Week?

Tonight we look at the pattern evolution into early January, as well as take a deeper dive into 2 systems of note: heavy rain late Friday night into Saturday and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/10/video-pattern-evolution-into-early-january-wintry-mischief-on-deck-early-next-week/

Nov 25

Strong Storm Potential By Evening; More Chatter About Late Weekend-Next Week…

It’s a wet morning across central Indiana as widespread rain (some of which is moderate to heavy) is falling for most of the region. This is due to a well organized low pressure system and associated frontal boundary currently spinning across the central Plains.

As the widespread shield of rain departs late morning and into the early afternoon hours, we’ll have a “lull” in the activity until late afternoon and early evening. That’s when we anticipate storms to fire as the area of low pressure moves across the state. Should we get into any sort of sunshine later this afternoon (questionable at best), the opportunity for severe weather would increase during the 4p to 9p window (west to east). As it is, a couple of strong-to-severe storms can’t be ruled out given the dynamics in play. The biggest threat would be localized hail and/ or damaging wind gusts with these stronger cells.

Widespread 1″+ rainfall can be expected (both from this morning’s rain and what’s ahead this evening) with locally heavier amounts- especially south of the I-70 corridor.

Things will quieten down tonight and we still anticipate a much calmer Thanksgiving Day, itself, continuing through Black Friday and Saturday as high pressure settles overhead.

By this time, of course, attention will turn to the “shenanigans” ahead early next week. We have no changes to our thinking a significant event is ahead and continue to favor this initial storm tracking west of the spine of the Appalachians. Operational model will likely continue to offer up a wide range of solutions (sometimes with each model update). The item we’ll be most focused on is the phasing of the 2 streams. The timing of this taking place will play a critical role into who ends up with a sizable snow/ wind event vs. mostly rain with backlash snow. Stay tuned and know, as per usual, we’ll be posting away right through the holiday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/25/strong-storm-potential-by-evening-more-chatter-about-late-weekend-next-week/

Nov 18

Tracking Multiple Storm Systems Between Now And Month’s End…

As Thanksgiving and the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears, the weather pattern sure appears as if it’ll become a bit more hectic and busy in nature. In the short-term, we’re forecasting another significant wind event Thursday. While likely not to the magnitude of what we saw across central IN last Sunday, sustained southwest winds of 20-25 MPH will develop Thursday with gusts approaching 50 MPH.

That leads us to Friday and the upcoming weekend. While most of the day Friday will be rain-free, we’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by afternoon and evening and light rain will eventually follow. This has to do with a “wavy” frontal boundary that will be draped across the central Ohio Valley. It was only a couple of days ago where most modeling pegged this frontal boundary to lie across the southern Great Lakes region (which would’ve led to a warmer and drier weekend, locally). Alas, we can expect periods of light rain and chilly weather Saturday with heavier, steadier rain arriving Sunday as the cold front sweeps through the region. Drier and cooler air will then filter into the region as we progress through the early parts of Thanksgiving week, itself.

Model data agrees that between 1″ and 1.3″ of rain will fall across immediate central Indiana with this event (total between Friday night and Sunday). Officially, on a broader scale, we’ll forecast 0.75″ to 1.25″ with locally heavier amounts possible.

After a quieter couple of days to open Thanksgiving week, itself, we’re tracking 2 additional storms next week. The first will likely arrive Wednesday with gusty showers and blustery conditions.

The 2nd storm system will blow into town Friday and Saturday. The trade-off in between, if we’re lucky, will be a pleasant (seasonably cool and dry) Thanksgiving holiday.

To no surprise, the European ensemble sees a wetter than normal close to the month upcoming, including a good chunk of the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and East Coast.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/11/18/tracking-multiple-storm-systems-between-now-and-months-end/

Oct 29

Wet Thursday; Major Improvements In Time For Halloween; Jab Of Early Season Arctic Air To Open Next Week…

Rain is falling across all of central and southern portions of the state this morning, but there’s a sharp cut-off across northern Indiana, thanks to a frontal boundary. It’s a “what you see is what you get” kind of day as steady rain will continue into the afternoon before becoming more showery in nature. Additional rainfall amounts will range from between 0.25″ and 0.75″.

Rain will exit the state off to the southeast by 9p-10p this evening, but by that time there could be a few lake effect rain showers flowing off Lake Michigan and impacting far northwest IN as cooler air pours into the region.

Speaking of that, lows tonight and Friday morning will fall into the middle 30s for most of central IN.

High pressure will build into the region as we wrap up the week and help supply a return of dry, sunny weather Friday and Halloween, itself.

Our quiet weather will give way to blustery and colder conditions to close the weekend and open up the new work week as the arctic comes visiting for the first time this season.

This is the type system that will generate the first lake effect snow event of the season for the eastern Great Lakes Snow Belt communities. We can expect a hard freeze Monday morning with temperatures falling into the upper 20s and wind chill values into the 10s.

As next week matures, temperatures will begin to moderate and high pressure will supply an extended period of dry conditions. Overall, we’re looking at a much quieter week ahead compared to the past couple of weeks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/29/wet-thursday-major-improvements-in-time-for-halloween-jab-of-early-season-arctic-air-to-open-next-week/

Oct 28

VIDEO: Wind-Driven Rain Event Overspreads The Region Overnight; Sharp Jab Of Early Season Arctic Air To Open The New Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/28/video-wind-driven-rain-event-overspreads-the-region-overnight-sharp-jab-of-early-season-arctic-air-to-open-the-new-week/

Oct 27

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Builds In Wednesday Night; Jab Of Early Season Arctic Air Sunday-Monday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/27/video-heavy-rain-builds-in-wednesday-night-jab-of-early-season-arctic-air-sunday-monday/

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