Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Fall-ish Feel…

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Reinforcing cool air is blowing into town this morning along with clouds and scattered light showers.  Most of the showers should dissipate as we progress into the afternoon hours with brightening skies.  Temperatures will remain quite cool today; 13-15 degrees below normal.  A fall-ish feel can be expected today and tonight!  If you have a plan to be on the patio tonight, plan to take a jacket or sweater!  Dry and absolutely gorgeous weather will settle in over the holiday weekend, with plentiful sunshine and below normal temperatures.  We’ll return to an active pattern early next week along with multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be heavy at times, especially Tuesday.  Overall, the active pattern continues, biased cooler than normal.  Rainfall numbers early next week may grow quite heavy yet again.  Model consensus would place anywhere from 1.5″-3″ of rain down next week across the Hoosier state.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Severe Weather, T-storms

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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Independence Day

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather