Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Wet And Stormy Times Through The Weekend; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

While it won’t rain the entire weekend, central Indiana should be prepared for multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days.  For those with outdoor plans this weekend, unfortunately what we’re seeing this evening is only the beginning of stormy times ahead.  There will be periods of dry weather in between the waves of storms, but the big story will be the hefty rain totals come Monday morning and embedded severe storms to boot.

Moisture content continues to increase across central Indiana this evening.

Precipitable water values continue to increase this evening and will aid in locally heavy rainfall tonight and through the weekend.

Forecast radar shows the waves of moisture that will impact the region throughout the night.  We project most widespread heavy rain arrives on the scene Saturday morning.

Forecast radar 11p
Forecast radar 4a
Forecast radar 10a

While scattered strong to severe storms will remain in our forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday, we think the most widespread rains will diminish as we progress through the afternoon hours Saturday.  That said, with such high moisture content, any storms that develop will be plenty capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short timeframe.  It should also be mentioned that as the warm front lifts north, central Indiana will get into an increasingly warm and moist air mass Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  In fact, highs Sunday may approach the lower to middle 80s.  Add in a dew point that will approach 70°, a true muggy, summer-like feel will result.

Overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to, once again, increase Sunday evening into the overnight period.  Additional heavy rain is expected and with saturated soils in place, flash flooding may result.  If you live near a creek or stream, please pay attention to the water levels into early next week.

The Storm Prediction Center outlines the region for the potential of severe weather tonight through Sunday (don’t be surprised if the “Slight Risk” is pulled further north on Sunday in future updates from the SPC).

Once all is said and done, we anticipate widespread 2″-3″ rainfall totals through central Indiana, but also note there will be localized heavier amounts.  Once to Monday we’ll look at a much cooler, windy, and “showery” regime.  Look for falling temperatures through  the day Monday and this will set the stage for the week ahead: MUCH cooler, overall….  More on that later this weekend!

No Comments Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…

The new JMA Weeklies paint a wet and active picture for Week 1, but begin to suggest we get into a milder, drier pattern as we push into the middle and latter portions of May…

Week 1:

The “mean” upper air pattern places coastal ridges with a cool trough settling into the central.  The end result will be a wet and active regime, locally, this weekend into next week.  Though we’ll see a “spike” in temperatures Sunday, the overall theme is a chilly one as we open the month of May.  In fact, temperatures will trend significantly cooler than average as we push into next week.

Week 2:

While it still looks chilly (compared to average), the JMA Weeklies suggest a “calmer” weather pattern moving in.  Wet anomalies are noted through the Rockies and Central, but a drier trend across the east, including the Ohio Valley.

Weeks 3-4:

Wet times remain across the Central and spread into more of the southern tier, as well.  Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are also forecast across the Southeast.  Budding warmth seems to develop over the West.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, JMA, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Busy Weather Pattern…

Highlights:

  • AM showers then cooler and windy
  • Stormy weekend ahead
  • Cooler next week

Busy Times In The Weather Office…A cold front will sweep through the state this morning with lingering showers and an abrupt wind shift.  Gusty westerly winds and cooler air (we’ve already seen our high for the day) will be with us this afternoon, along with a variably cloudy sky.

Unfortunately, we don’t have many changes to the ongoing idea of hefty weekend rains.  A warm front will begin to slowly lift north Friday into Saturday and this will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Overall coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms will increase as we rumble through the second half of Friday.  A couple of storms could be strong to severe- especially across southern Indiana Friday afternoon and night.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north and be located across the southern Great Lakes region Sunday.  This will put our neck of the woods squarely into the warm and humid air mass Sunday.  Though storm coverage will likely be more scattered in nature when compared to Saturday, heavy thunderstorms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  With a deep-rooted tropical connection along with saturated soils in place from early weekend rains, flood and flash flood potential will be high as we go into early portions of next week.

As we open up the work week, we’ll shift gears from a moisture-rich southerly flow to one that’s out of the northwest and much cooler.  Showers will continue through Monday.  Our next storm system will then set it’s eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Dry Time Is Limited…

Highlights:

  • Unsettled times ahead
  • Weekend heavy rain
  • Much cooler and windy early next week

Enjoy The Dry Time While You Can…While most of Wednesday will remain rain-free, we do note the potential of a diminishing line of thunderstorms that could impact portions of far northwest sections of the state Wednesday morning.  As mentioned, these should diminish relatively quickly and give way to a mostly dry day.  A cold front will approach the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time.  Briefly drier air will arrive Thursday evening into Friday and we should wrap up the work week mainly dry.

We’ll take whatever dry weather we can get as the weekend still looks wet and stormy.  We discussed the weekend setup this morning and thoughts haven’t changed a bit.  Today’s model data continues to suggest we’re looking at periods of heavy rainfall with widespread weekend totals of 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts possible).  Of the two days, Saturday appears to offer up the most widespread rains, but we caution that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Sunday will have the potential of depositing hefty totals in relative short order.  Due to the projected steering currents, we’re also concerned for the possibility of “training” of heavy rain and that would quickly create a flash flood concern in localized areas.  Stay tuned.  Another item of interest is the possibility of “bust potential” with regard to the temperature forecast Saturday.  Latest modeling wants to keep the warm front just south of the immediate region for most of the day now and, as such, we’ve trended cooler with Saturday’s temperatures before that warm southwesterly air flow wins out Sunday.

The warmth won’t last long as we quickly transition to a cooler west and northwest regime to open the work week.  Along with the much cooler air, scattered showers and strong and gusty winds will be with us.  We’ll finally begin to calm down with a very pleasant Tuesday expected.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.00″ – 4.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Windy