A cold front blew through the state Thursday evening and much cooler, drier air is greeting us out the door this morning. In general, temperatures are running 5° to 10° below average across the state. Highs today won’t make it out of the 70s and high pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing dry conditions, through Saturday.
Changes begin to take place as we move into the second half of the weekend as a storm system organizes to our west. I still think most of the day will be rain-free, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness and will mention the potential of a scattered, light shower.
This is only an “appetizer” to the main course which will arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look like a wash out across the region with the potential of locally heavy rain, as well. The culprit? A surface area of low pressure and associated front that will move through the state.
In addition to the expected Tuesday soaker, unseasonably cool temperatures will remain. In fact, most of the day on Tuesday should be spent in the 60s…
Rainfall coverage and intensity will begin to diminish Wednesday and drier air should arrive Thursday. By that point, we expect widespread rainfall totals to check-in between 1″ and 2″ with locally heavier amounts.
As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure. As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain. Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.
Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.
Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…
We’ll notice thunderstorms becoming more numerous for our friends in Illinois through the afternoon and evening, but central Indiana should remain mostly dry until tonight. Forecast radar products want to bring these storms into the state after the 7p to 8p time frame. We’ll keep close tabs on radar trends this afternoon.
(Again, with high moisture content, any thunderstorm that passes through your neighborhood will be capable of producing torrential rainfall). For that matter, the same story can be said with storms that develop Sunday and Monday, as precipitable water values will remain around 2″ until the front sweeps through the state.
Overall, dry conditions should prevail until late next weekend when a secondary, even stronger, front will make a run at the region. We’ll ramp storm chances back up ahead of this expected front and the air mass behind the boundary in the Week 2 time period will be even cooler than we we’ll enjoy the middle part of the upcoming week.
Speaking of cool, the pattern continues to look vastly different as we put a wrap on the month than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past couple of weeks. Note the dominant trough the models show setting up shop over the Mid West…