Category: Heavy Rain

Mar 24

Fresh Batch Of HVY Rain Before Weekend Improvements…

Updated 03.24.23 @ 6:55a

Moderate to heavy rain has been falling through the night across the southern half of Indiana.

While rain will continue through the daytime downstate, it’s tonight that we’re most concerned around a renewed push of heavy rain that will likely push many creeks and streams into flood stage. This is all associated with a surface low that will lift northeast across the state and into the Great Lakes region. After southern Indiana takes the stage for heaviest rain through the daytime today, all of the region can expect to get in on the heavy rain act tonight. We bracket 11p to 3a for heaviest rain to fall through central Indiana.

A look at additional rain to come by noon Saturday:

The good news is that after tonight’s heavy rain, weather conditions will improve through the weekend. Our next storm system (much weaker) will arrive Monday but should be fairly moisture starved- certainly compared to our current storm. More on this and a long range look ahead Saturday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/24/fresh-batch-of-hvy-rain-before-weekend-improvements/

Mar 23

VIDEO: Rough 36-48 Hours Ahead Before A Calmer Weekend…

Updated 03.23.23 @ 7:58a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/23/video-rough-36-48-hours-ahead-before-a-calmer-weekend/

Mar 22

VIDEO: Focusing In On The Flood Threat To Close The Week…

Updated 03.22.23 @ 7:46a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/22/video-focusing-in-on-the-flood-threat-to-close-the-week/

Mar 21

VIDEO: Flood Event Looms For The Southern Ohio Valley Friday Into Saturday…

Updated 03.21.23 @ 6:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/21/video-flood-event-looms-for-the-southern-ohio-valley-friday-into-saturday/

Mar 20

VIDEO: Still Targeting A Heavy Late Week Rain Event; New European Weeklies Are In…

Updated 03.20.23 @ 5:34p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/20/video-still-targeting-a-heavy-late-week-rain-event-new-european-weeklies-are-in/

Mar 19

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 03.19.23 @ 12:40p

I. By late-March standards, we’re looking at another downright frigid day (yes, even with that increasingly high sun angle these days). Overnight lows bottomed out deep into the 10s this morning. We’ll, thankfully, begin to moderate this afternoon and that same trend will carry us into the 60s by Thursday. Hang in there.

II. Unfortunately, that moderating trend will also come with renewed unsettled weather. While the work week will get off to a nice start, rain returns Tuesday night as an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow takes hold.

III. It still doesn’t appear as if the lead wave of moisture Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be a big deal but it will set the tone for what lies ahead to close the work week. We continue to circle Friday as the day that will bring heaviest rain and an associated flood threat. Widespread 3”+ rain amounts remain on the table and we’ll be able to hone in on more specific placement and amounts as we get through the next 24-48 hours.

IV. If that’s not enough, guidance brings another organized system through the region late next weekend, as well. Needless to say, well above normal precipitation is expected over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days and flood risks will have to be monitored closely as this pattern evolves.

V. A reinforcing chilly airmass will likely follow next Sunday’s system.

Side note: Monday’s normally scheduled client video discussion will be posted Monday evening due to travel. I apologize for any inconvenience and look forward to reviewing fresh 12z guidance concerning the items above (and more) tmrw evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/19/sunday-afternoon-rambles-6/

Mar 18

Quiet Open To The Week Turns Busy; Focus Shifts To Late Week HVY Rain Threat…

Updated 03.18.23 @ 2:33p

The short-term pattern will be highlighted by today’s wintry conditions. Snow showers accompanied bitter cold (at least by March standards) this morning, including wind chill values that even dipped below zero in spots. Sunday will also feature unseasonable cold before a slow moderation in the temperature department eventually takes us back into the 60s by midweek.

Speaking of midweek, that’s when unsettled weather will return. We don’t anticipate particularly heavy rain, but rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday. Early numbers suggest we’re looking at 0.25” to 0.50” type of an event but this appears to set the stage for a more significant rain storm as we get set to close the week. As is typically the case 5-6 days out, forecast models differ on the specifics but the overall pattern favors a heavy rain and local flood threat unfolding across the Ohio Valley. Specifics regarding whether or not this is a central or more of a southern OHV threat will be dealt with in the days ahead.

As it is, the GFS and European are in great agreement from this distance on the heavy rain and flood threat, including the opportunity of 3”+ of rain through at least a portion of the forecast area (most of which falls Friday). Specifics around more details with locations/ rainfall numbers will be fine tuned in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/18/quiet-open-to-the-week-turns-busy-focus-shifts-to-late-week-hvy-rain-threat/

Mar 03

VIDEO: Multi-Faceted Significant Storm To Close The Work Week; Colder Shift Takes Place Next Week And Sets The Stage For More “Fun And Games…”

Updated 03.03.23 @ 7:40a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/03/video-multi-faceted-significant-storm-to-close-the-work-week-colder-shift-takes-place-next-week-and-sets-the-stage-for-more-fun-and-games/

Mar 02

Client Brief: Thursday Evening Update…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 11:03p

Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow

What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow

When: Friday, 3/3/23

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.

We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.

We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/02/client-brief-thursday-evening-update/

Mar 02

VIDEO: Dynamic Storm System Delivers Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, And Potential Of Severe Storms To The Area Friday…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 7:40a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/02/video-dynamic-storm-system-delivers-heavy-rain-strong-winds-and-potential-of-severe-storms-to-the-area-friday/

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