Category: Harvest23

VIDEO: Warming Up This Week; Opportunity For More Unsettled Times Late This Weekend Into Next Week…

Updated 09.18.23 @ 8:23a

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A Quiet Week With A Warming Trend; More Active Week 2?

Updated 09.17.23 @ 9:14a

Just enough energy will be around today to keep scattered, mainly light, showers in the mix into the evening hours. Most area rain gauges won’t collect significant rain but a few thunderstorms could drop a quick downpour in isolated fashion later this afternoon into the early evening.

A secondary disturbance will approach from the northwest Tuesday and provide another opportunity for a few showers, primarily northwest of the city. Most of these should dissipate before moving into central Indiana. All in all, we’re looking at a very quiet week with a significant warming trend.

A calm, mostly dry week is in store for the region.
Temperatures will return to well above normal levels this week.

Highs will run into the middle to upper 80s by the mid and latter part of the week with dry conditions.

Uneventful weather will carry the day through the weekend. While we’re watching a more significant storm system approaching early in Week 2, modeling differs on the specific handling. The European drives most of the energy well south of our neck of the woods and paints a continuation of our dry stretch. The GFS (shown below) is more excited about delivering rain early next week. We’ll watch how trends continue to evolve through the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-quiet-week-with-a-warming-trend-more-active-week-2/

Saturday Morning Rambles: Warm Close To September And An October Look Ahead…

Updated 09.16.23 8:16a

The pattern transition from the current cooler than normal regime to a warm September finish, compared to the norm, will get started the middle of next week. We still have several days to go with highs of 82°+ to close out the month. The pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal. The exception to that general rule will come Sunday with scattered showers (the system that generates Sunday showers here will serve to ignite an early season ‘Nor Easter early week for the Mid Atlantic and New England. – A sign of the changing seasons) and we’re still tracking the threat of a more organized storm system in the early Week 2 period. The trend, however, has been for this being less of a player in our weather compared to a few days ago but we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

The pattern will transition warmer than normal for the 2nd half of the month.

As we flip the page into October, the pattern drivers from this distance appear to be lining up to drive a period of cooler air as we rumble through the first 1/3 of the month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to push into Phase 6. This typically favors the warmer anomalies across the west and Plains with at least a reflection of a trough across the East Coast.

The Pacific North America pattern (PNA) and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are working in tandem to also favor a cooler regime across our portion of the country. It’s fair to say that we believe the longer range warm “look” will be forced to cool over the course of the next couple weeks for early October.

The dry, relatively boring regime should begin to turn more active as we close out the month and move into October. The thinking here is that we should see a resurgent wet regime the deeper into fall we go before rolling into the drier than normal predominant winter pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-warm-close-to-september-and-an-october-look-ahead/

VIDEO: Rain Chances Return Over The Weekend; Warmer, But More Active Shift In The Late September Pattern?

Updated 09.15.23 @ 7:18a

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VIDEO: Cool Now, But A Warmer Week 2 Awaits; Tracking A More Significant Storm System Late Next Week…

Updated 09.14.23 @ 8a

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