Mid and high level clouds are streaming overhead this evening and will help set up a brilliant sunset across central IN.
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Moisture will continue to be transported northward Wednesday, courtesy of a gusty SW breeze at times. As the approaching cold front interacts with the moisture return, scattered showers will “blossom” across the area Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday.
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.
The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition. Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals. As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.
Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler. Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September. Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.
The warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.
The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.
Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.
In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.
The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.
In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.
As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.