Category: Hail

Apr 05

Stormy Day Ahead Of A Gorgeous Easter Weekend…

Updated 04.05.23 @ 7:13a

Today is one of those days where it will be important to remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings that will likely be issued. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include all of the state in an ‘enhanced risk’ of severe weather today. All modes of severe weather are in play with the greatest emphasis placed on damaging straight line wind potential, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Large hail is also possible, especially if we get discrete cells to pop ahead of the main line later this afternoon (more on that below).

Out the door this morning, it’s easy to understand the environment is one conducive of stormy weather. We’re already in the middle 70s at the 7a hour (that will be close to our high today) and dew points are into the lower to middle 60s. Instability will increase in the coming hours and it won’t be long before a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued for a part, if not most, of the state.

As we time out the arrival of storms, we think things unfold in 2 waves today. The first round of storms likely comes from individual cells, or clusters, mid to late morning. These will be scattered in nature but have the potential to rotate and also produce large hail.

The 2nd wave will come from a more widespread squall line and that’s where we anticipate the greatest opportunity of damaging straight line winds. Please note this doesn’t mean there still couldn’t be a quick spin-up tornado embedded within the squall line.

The other item to add here has to do with gradient winds that will approach 50 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. If you haven’t already, we’d highly encourage bringing in or securing any loose objects that could easily be blown about.

Weather conditions will rapidly improve from west to east as we move into the evening hours and this will set the stage for the remainder of the week, including our Easter weekend. High pressure will build overhead and supply an extended stretch of sunny days and calm nights, including lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, eventually warming into the 60s for highs this weekend, and into the 70s early next week.

Please be sure to remain weather-aware today and heed any warnings that will likely be issued in the coming hours.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/05/stormy-day-ahead-of-a-gorgeous-easter-weekend/

Jan 17

Evening Update: From Storms To Snow…

Updated 01.17.23 @ 6:14p Quick video discussion this evening highlighting the opportunity for embedded storms (wind/ hail threat up for some tomorrow night and again Thursday PM) followed by a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/17/evening-update-from-storms-to-snow/

Oct 13

VIDEO: “Taste” Of Winter Early Next Week…

Updated 10.13.22 @ 8a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/13/video-taste-of-winter-early-next-week/

Jul 23

VIDEO: Wet, Stormy Pattern; Heat Backs Off In The Coming Days…

Updated 07.23.22 @ 7:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/23/video-wet-stormy-pattern-heat-backs-off-in-the-coming-days/

Jun 08

VIDEO: Detailing Today’s Severe Threat; Few Days Of Intense Heat, Humidity Arrives Next Week…

Updated 06.08.22 @ 7:27a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/06/08/video-detailing-todays-severe-threat-few-days-of-intense-heat-humidity-arrives-next-week/

Apr 30

Saturday Opens Quiet; Ends Stormy…

Updated 04.30.22 @ 5:30a

Our Saturday will open on a calm, quiet note, but changes are brewing…

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the western half of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather (including Indianapolis).

We focus in on the mid to late afternoon hours for storm initialization- specifically around 3p to 4p into the city, itself. This will likely only be the first of multiple rounds of storms into the nighttime hours. In fact, strongest storms likely won’t impact the region until after sunset, continuing up until around midnight.

Damaging wind is the biggest concern with stronger storms, but a few cells could contain hail and we can’t completely rule out the chance of a quick spin up.

Locally heavy rain is also expected, especially where storms train over the same communities. Most communities in and around Indianapolis can expect to pick up at least an inch of rain, with some closing in on 2”.

The good news is that all of this will clear out of here for the 2nd half of the weekend leading to a much more pleasant time of things Sunday.

More on this and looking ahead to the 1st half of May a bit later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/30/saturday-opens-quiet-ends-stormy/

Mar 23

VIDEO: Severe Weather Develops This Afternoon; Unseasonably Cold Stretch On Deck…

Updated 03.23.22 @ 7:35a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/23/video-severe-weather-develops-this-afternoon-unseasonably-cold-stretch-on-deck/

Mar 22

Persistent Rain Gives Way To Some Hailers Wednesday PM? Colder Shift With Wintry Precipitation This Weekend Into Early Next Week…

Updated 03.22.22 @ 6:52a

A shield of rain is lifting into central Indiana during the predawn hours and once it arrives, we can expect wet times to persist through the better part of our Tuesday.

An all day rain can be expected across the region.

This is all part of a surface low that will lift northeast out of the central Plains region (today) into the lower Great Lakes region (Thursday). In association with this low pressure system, a warm front will lift northeast across the region Wednesday. Eventually, a cold front will move from west to east and sweep the state Wednesday night and early Thursday.

As this all transpires, a steady “all day” soaker can be expected across the region today.

Periods of rain will persist through our Tuesday.

Heaviest rain will be confined to western and northwestern parts of the state where amounts of 2″+ can be expected by 7a Wednesday. For immediate central and eastern Indiana, amounts of 0.50″ to 1.25″ can be expected by Wednesday morning.

Precipitation will turn more “showery” in nature by Wednesday morning, but by this timeframe, all eyes will be turning to the potential of thunder Wednesday afternoon as just enough instability and cold air aloft combine. From the city, itself, and points north and east, the threat of a few stronger cells are present Wednesday afternoon (after lunchtime). With the ingredients in place, a few of these storms could produce hail as they race off to the northeast.

We’ll turn MUCH cooler Thursday and Friday with a few “nuisance” variety showers around, but compared to what we see today and Wednesday, these won’t be a big deal (just annoying ;-)).

The colder times continue into the weekend and early portions of the next week and with a fast northwesterly flow aloft, a couple of disturbances will likely deliver the potential of mixed rain/ snow showers Saturday and again Monday.

Snow showers will likely be flying across the region as we open up the weekend.
A clipper system will offer up the chance of additional snow Monday morning.

We still expect a hard freeze (25° to 30°) early next week for a good chunk of the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/22/persistent-rain-gives-way-to-some-hailers-wednesday-pm-colder-shift-with-wintry-precipitation-this-weekend-into-early-next-week/

Mar 06

VIDEO: Another Round Of Severe Weather Downstate Late Tonight; Convective Snow Squalls Monday PM, And Looking Ahead To The Potential Of A Late Week Winter Event…

Updated 03.06.22 @ 9:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/06/video-another-round-of-severe-weather-downstate-late-tonight-convective-snow-squalls-monday-pm-and-looking-ahead-to-the-potential-of-a-late-week-winter-event/

Jun 18

Client Brief: Severe Weather Event And Flash Flood Potential…

Updated 06.18.21 @ 5:37p

Type: Severe weather event

What: Severe weather event and flash flood threat

When: This afternoon through tonight

Severe Risks: Damaging wind, large hail, embedded tornado potential, flash flooding

Summary: A complex of thunderstorms to our north this morning will diminish. As a result, the cloud canopy engulfing much of the region this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies late morning and into the afternoon. Intense heat is expected this afternoon, courtesy of a southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front and upper air disturbance. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon and heat indices will climb to between 100° and 105°. This heat, combined with a multitude of other ingredients: dew points into the 70s, convective available potential energy (CAPE) in excess of 4000 j/kg (suggestive of extreme instability), and steep low level lapse rates (rate of temperature change with height) all will play into what looks like a significant setup for a severe weather outbreak later this afternoon and tonight.

Initially, individual cells are likely to erupt (targeting mid to late afternoon) along an OFB (outflow boundary) across n-central Indiana. Damaging wind and large hail are the biggest concerns with these cells, but a tornado threat is also on the table in this highly unstable environment. Eventually the scattered, intense cells should congeal into more of a widespread storm complex by evening and impact most of central and southern parts of the state. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2” and promote a flash flood risk, especially if thunderstorms back-build and train over the same communities. Should this be the case, localized rainfall amounts of 3”-4” will be a good bet. As we progress into the overnight hours, the storm complex and associated flood risk will shift downstate.

Confidence: HighN

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/06/18/client-brief-severe-weather-event-and-flash-flood-potential/

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