Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.
The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.
Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.
We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.
We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.
Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.
Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.
High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.
The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.
