Category: Hail

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Jun 28

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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Independence Day

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

Jun 21

Severe Threat Later Tonight, But Some Questions Linger…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather that includes central Indiana, primarily for potential thunderstorms late today and tonight.

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Primary Threats:

  • Large hail
  • Damaging straight line winds

Discussion:

There are a few questions regarding the potential of severe weather across our immediate region.  It’s unclear how leftover outflow boundaries from thunderstorms during the overnight will interact as they push east.  That said, it’s possible these boundaries could help ignite a couple of clusters of thunderstorms across Iowa and Illinois later this afternoon.  This activity would then ride southeast.  Should we get storms to fire, they would likely hold together as they approach western and central Indiana.  CAPE will reach 2000-2200 J/kg this evening and low level moisture will be on the uptick, as well.  We’ll have an updated post this afternoon after we have a chance to see if convection (thunderstorms) fires to our west.

Enjoy your Saturday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-later-tonight-but-questions-abound/

Jun 17

Focusing On Wednesday Evening Severe Potential…

Good afternoon!  We wanted to cut a video discussing our thinking around timing and primary threats from any severe weather that gets going across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!

4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focusing-on-wednesday-evening-severe-potential/

Jun 14

Sunday Night Thunder

Our nice weekend is set to continue for another 18-24 hours with another unseasonably cool night ahead. While humidity will increase during the afternoon Sunday, most of Sunday will be dry, albeit warmer.  High temperatures will climb into the middle 80s for many central Indiana communities.

Times will begin to change as we go into Sunday night as just the beginning of a series of convective elements come together to impact the region through Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will likely rumble into far western portions of the state as early as 4-5pm.  Speaking of far western portions of Indiana, the updated severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights western Indiana for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  Again, this is a late day severe weather risk with damaging wind and large hail of greatest concern.

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Forecast simulated radar shows the convection rumbling east Sunday night and most of central and eastern Indiana get in on the thundery action before Sunday is finished.  Here’s a look at what the radar may look like from 8pm Sunday to midnight Monday morning.

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While the storms will likely weaken as they track east, a strong thunderstorm or two is certainly possible for the greater Indianapolis region Sunday night.  We’ll keep you posted with future updates.  Have a relaxing Saturday night.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-night-thunder/