Category: GFS

Updated 01.08.22 @ 4:35p

While we’re dealing with our own wintry precipitation this afternoon, snow lovers continue to wait for the first big event of the season. Watching 2 snow storms blow by to our south over the past week was an added sting.

Patience may very well be rewarded as we navigate the second half of the month as a classic wintry pattern carves itself out over the eastern portion of the country.

The GFS was first to key in on this pattern evolution, and now, today, the European is finally seeing the light (shown below). What makes this pattern different is the likelihood of high latitude blocking (courtesy of a negative arctic oscillation) which will help the regime sustain itself. On that note, it’s been my experience that the GFS does better handling AO transitions from positive to negative and was the primary reason we leaned on the GEFS earlier this week. Run to run consistency was also another player.

November and December failed to produce teleconnections that were aligned for cold, but that should change as we push towards mid month. This is ultimately a byproduct of the primary driver- the MJO rumbling into Phase 8 (finally). As the AO goes negative, the EPO should follow suit. Unlike in December, the PNA should also be in a much more favorable state for persistent eastern cold.

The idea here is that the majority (if not all) of the second half of January will feature below to well below average temperatures and multiple opportunities for “more meaningful” snow- whether it be from a series of Clippers, a more classic panhandle cross-country winter storm (example pictured below), or a combination of both.

At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern, and for the first time this season, it appears as if we’ll be able to lock this cold in.